Paul
Skenes

The 6-foot-6 right-hander started slow with three of the first four Kansas State batters reaching base. He threw 33 pitches in the first inning alone, struggling to control his lively 97-99 mph two-seam fastball that typically has greater than a foot of horizontal movement, and up to 18” at times to his armside (1” more than the width of home plate). He did not record an out until pitch No. 20. However, it was all easy-going from there as he made a between-innings adjustment with what looked to be an improved direction to the plate. Skenes shoved for the remainder of his six-inning, 11-strikeout start. He finished the game retiring 12 in a row and 16 of the last 17. His fastball settled in at 95-97 and used it primarily as a chase pitch up in the zone for strike three. Skenes also featured a hard 89-90 mph changeup to left handed hitters and a sweeping slider to right handed bats. The change-of-pace showed good bottom and so much life at times that it made it difficult to land in the zone. Early in the game K State spit on the borderline offering, but Skenes developed more feel as the game progressed and it too, became a swing/miss offering, grading out as solid average to plus. His slider is a bit lower quality than his change, grading out as average at 83-87 mph. With continued good health, stuff and performance as he displayed this past weekend at Round Rock, Skenes is a lock to go in the top 10 overall picks this July. A MLB comparison to Andy Benes (who went No. 1 overall in 1988) is currently popular in the industry.

Despite being sidelined recently with soreness, Skenes made further jumps this fall in Baton Rouge. Recording a top fastball velocity of 99.7 mph per LSU Analytics, his 85-87 slider also showed improvement along with his 90-91 split-change that he’s now able to pitch off of. Add to that his competitiveness and ability to throw all three pitches from a tough slot consistently in the zone, he’s now a Day One Dude.

USA CNT: College baseball’s premier two-way player over his first two seasons at Air Force, Skenes entered the transfer portal after leading the Falcons to regionals this spring, going 10-3, 2.73 with 96 strikeouts and 30 walks in 85.2 innings, while also posting a 1.046 OPS with 13 homers as a catcher. As of this writing, his 2023 destination remains unknown. Skenes worked exclusively as a pitcher in his second tour of duty with the CNT, and he dominated in both of his appearances, allowing just two singles over 3.2 scoreless innings in Durham and then throwing four innings of two-hit, shutout ball with four strikeouts in Haarlem. With an XL frame at 6-foot-6, 245 pounds, Skenes is an intimidating presence on the mound. He uses a short bow-and-arrow takeaway to a three-quarters slot and an upright delivery, producing 92-95 mph heat with loser spin rates in the 2000-2200 range in Durham. He is capable of missing bats with his fastball, and he also got empty swings with his changeup and slider, although the changeup remains the better of the two pitches. He throws the cambio at 86-88 mph and has feel to locate it right-on-right and land it for a strike. He doesn’t have huge action, but he throws it with good arm speed and it’s an effective change of pace. His slider is serviceable at 83-85, sometimes lacking bite and coming in flat but occasionally flashing average. His ability to continue refining that pitch is the key to his prospect stock in 2023, but there’s no denying his physicality, arm strength, track record, competitiveness and pitchability.

USA CNT- A 2023 armed with a mid-90s fastball and 70-grade split CH. The 6-foot-6, 235-pound Skenes made easy work of both left and right handed hitters. The imposing right-hander showed the ability to pitch with his 94-96 mph higher-spin (2400 rpm) fastball up in the zone, while dropping his 84-85 splitter below the knees for swing/miss. His feel to spin an 83-84 short-breaking slider was limited as he was consistently on the side of the baseball. A two-way player for the CNT, Skenes showed a long swing and marginal bat speed in the batter’s box. It did not have the current look of a stroke made for success at the pro level. Cape Cod- When he wasn't flying fighter jets or pitching for the USA CNT this summer, the 6-foot-6, 245-pound Skenes found time to log eight innings for the Gatemen. In those innings, he accumulated 11 strikeouts and allowed 12 hits while walking five, resulting in a not so pretty 5.62 ERA. He also made his way into the batter's box for a few plate appearances, finishing 2-for-14 with nine strikeouts. Although he's a two-way talent for the Falcons, he profiles as a late inning reliever at the professional level. At his best on the bump, Skenes will touch triple digits and drop a plus split-CH into the zone for swing/miss. He was featured earlier this summer in our USA Baseball Insider: Scouting the Pitchers.

Another outstanding showing from the physical catcher who has a strong catchers frame, with ample room for additional good weight. Skenes continues to rise above the rest of the competition and separate himself as one of the top catching prospects in the 2020 class. Batting practice session was loud and he stood out in the catching portion showing his ability to receive with firm wrists and soft hands. Pop times were in the 1.9 – 2.1 range. Had an opposite field single in the live session seen below, then proceeded to steal second on the first pitch, demonstrating that he is not just a bat, but a well-rounded baseball player. Really excited to see his development going into his senior campaign.  

Skenes is showing that he may be one of the best catchers in his class despite his under-the-radar emergence and his commitment to the Air Force Academy. The former a case of priorities while the latter is a result of them. Academics are a priority both for Skenes and the Air Force Academy, making this a great fit for both parties. He is a physical, soft handed catcher with a power arm that could work on the mound if catching doesn't work out, and there's no indication it won't. Skenes controls the running game with his arm that popped 1.89 - 2.00 consistently throughout the game. He also provides power at the plate for the offense as demonstrated by his home run into the wind.