With the WIAA state tournament quickly approaching, we give you a look at some of the numbers behind which seeds advance to the semi-finals (Final 4) as well as the Championship game.

Will the top seeds win it all this year? Or will we see Cinderella’s emerge across the brackets?

All data from WIAA bracket index. RPI began in 2022 - 2023 season.

BEHIND THE BRACKET

Top Seeds Advancing to Semi-Finals (4A, 3A, 2A, 1A) from years 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023

4A
Total # of top 5 seeds in final four: 8/20 (40%)  
All other seeds: 12/20 (60%)

2023 - 1, 2, 5, 11
2022 - 1, 2, 4, 14

The last 2 seasons 2022 and 2023 have seen a higher percentage of top seeds reach the semi-finals with at least 1 double digit seed crashing the party. The number 1 and number 2 seed have been to the semi’s in back to back years. Given the WIAA just started using RPI, this year will be another indicator if these trends will continue with the new format, or if the numbers will continue to reflect the results with the old bracket format, where seeding was based solely off district playoff championship results. 

3A
Total # of top 5 seeds in final four: 11/20 (55%)
All other seeds: 9/20 (45%)

2023 - 2, 3, 4, 9
2022 - 1, 3, 10, 12

Similar to the recent trend in 4A, the 3A bracket has seen a lot of success with top seeds as of late with at least 1 “underdog” advancing to the semi’s. 

2A
Total # of top 5 seeds in final four: 13/20 (65%)
All other seeds: 7/20 (35%)

2023 - 1, 2, 3, 5
2022 - 2, 3, 4, 9

There has been much less parity at the 2A level as of late. The higher seeds have a much better track record of success and it wouldn’t be a shock for this trend to continue in 2024

1A
Total # of top 5 seeds in Final 4: 14/20 (70%)
All other seeds: 6/20 (30%)

2023 - 1, 3, 4, 7
2022 - 1, 2, 3, 12

Similar to the 2A level, there are much fewer upsets occurring at 1A. That being said, there are a few more high profile arms sprinkled throughout the bracket for 2024 and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a double digit seed break through somewhere and find their way to Bellingham. 

Top seeds advancing to Championship Game since 2000 - 2023 seasons

4A
Top 4 seed in championship game: 40%  (4/10)
All other seeds: 60%  (6/10)

Top 2 seed wins championship: 33% (7/21) 
All other seeds: 67% (14/21)

3A
Top 4 seed in championship game: 40%  (4/10)
All other seeds: 60%  (6/10)

Top 2 seed wins championship: 14% (3/21)
All other seeds: 86%  (18/21)

2A
Top 4 seed in championship game: 40% (4/10)
All other seeds: 60% (6/10)

Top 2 seed wins championship: 28% (6/21)
All other seeds: 72% (15/21)

1A
Top 4 seed in championship game: 80% (8/10)
All other seeds: 20%  (2/10)

Top 2 seed wins championship: 24% (5/21)
All other seeds: 76% (16/21)