Continuing with the National League East Division, here's a look at how the 2017-2021 draft classes are shaping up using bWAR.

Collectively, the division has produced 71 Major Leaguers and a 53.1 WAR. These totals place the division last in total WAR and fifth in the number of Major Leaguers when compared with the six divisions of MLB. In short, it is a large market division with a poor draft & development track record, except for one club.

Within the NL East, the Braves dominate. They have more than double the WAR of the next best team and lead the division with 18 Major Leaguers produced and have the best ROI at $1.65M/1.0 WAR, which ranks fifth in MLB. This should come as no surprise since they’ve been drafting & developing at a high level for years. In our previous NL East Draft Review of the 2015-2018 draft classes the Braves ranked 11th in Return on Investment (ROI).

The Nationals remain in the basement of the NL East, ranking 29th out of 30 for return on their investment in 2022, and 29th again this time around. In between the Bravos and the Nats, the Marlins continue to bottom feed, ranking 24th in 2022 and 23rd at present. Jumping up from 27th in 2022 to 19th currently, the Phillies look like a good bet to continue their ROI surge in the years to come with current WAR producers in Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm, as well as high-ranking prospects nearly ready to make an impact. Dropping 16 spots from our previous review, the Mets continue to be one of the most volatile franchises in MLB.

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ATLANTA BRAVES

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Kyle Wright (2.4 WAR).
• WAR Leader: Wright
• All Draft WAR Totals Combined: 3.6 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 4 (Wright, Drew Waters, Freddy Tarnok, Bruce Zimmerman)
• Signing Bonuses: $11.50M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Carter Stewart (did not sign).
• WAR Leader: Tristan Beck (1.1 WAR; 4th Round)
• All Draft War Totals Combined: 1.2 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 3 (Beck, Victor Vodnik, William Woods)
• Signing Bonuses: $5.82M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Shea Langeliers (1.2 WAR), No. 9 overall; Braden Shewmake (-0.1 WAR), No. 21 overall.
• WAR Leader: Michael Harris (8.7 WAR; 3rd Round)
• All Draft WAR Totals Combined: 10.3 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 6 (Langeliers, Harris, Shewmake, Darius Vines, Vaughn Grissom, Joey Estes)
• Signing Bonuses: $14.34M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Jared Shuster (-0.1 WAR), No. 25 overall.
• WAR Leader: Spencer Strider (7.1 WAR; 4th Round)
• All Draft WAR Totals Combined: 10.9 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 3 (Shuster, Strider, Bryce Elder)
• Signing Bonuses: $3.99M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Ryan Cusick (N/A), No. 24 overall.
• WAR Leader: AJ Smith-Shawver (0.1 WAR; 7th Round)
• All Draft WAR Totals Combined: 0.1 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 2 (Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd)
• Signing Bonuses: $7.59M

+ 2017-21 Totals

• WAR: 26.1
• ML'ers: 18
• Bonuses: $43.24M
• Return on Investment: $1.66M per 1.0 WAR (ranked No. 5 overall)

SUMMARY: The Braves started slow (for them) in 2017 and 2018 with just 4.8 WAR and seven Major Leaguers produced to date; 2017 1st round RHP Kyle Wright has yet to fulfill expectations and the 2018 draft class looks like a bust with 1st round RHP Carter Stewart opting to instead sign overseas and 2nd round OF Greyson Jenista, a career .225 hitter over five seasons in the minor leagues, traded to Kansas City. Atlanta’s fortunes began to change in 2019, hitting on 3rd round CF Michael Harris II. “Money Mike” deservedly got paid with an eight-year, $72 million contract and he has been a key cog in the Braves’ success the past two seasons. Obviously, 2020 4th round pick RHP Spencer Strider has also been a huge hit. He was a fairly risky pick after missing his entire 2019 college season at Clemson due to Tommy John surgery and then he pitched just 12 innings in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. Harris and Strider have been instrumental for the organization to overcome less than projected results to date from 2019 1st rounders Shea Langeliers and Braden Shewmake, 2nd round INF Beau Philip, 2020 1st round LHP Jared Shuster and 2021 1st round RHP Ryan Cusick. Regardless of the early round misses, the Braves rebounded and in the process proved that the best players don’t always come from Day One of the draft.

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MIAMI MARLINS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Trevor Rogers (2.9 WAR), No. 13 overall.
• WAR Leader: Rogers
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 3.1 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 4 (Rogers, Brian Miller, Joe Dunand, Sean Guenther)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.68M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Connor Scott (N/A), No. 13 overall.
• WAR Leader: Alex Vesia (1.6 WAR; 17th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 2.9 WAR
  
• ML'ers to date: 3 (Vesia, Nick Fortes, Chris Vallimont)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.37M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: JJ Bleday (-0.4 WAR), No. 4 overall.
• WAR Leader: Andrew Nardi (1.6 WAR; 16th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 1.6 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 6 (Bleday, Nardi, Peyton Burdick, Bryan Hoeing, Easton Lewis, Jeff Lindgren)
• Signing Bonuses: $14.83M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Max Meyer (-0.1 WAR), No. 3 overall.
• WAR Leader: Kyle Hurt (0.1 WAR; 5th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.1 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 3 (Meyer, Hurt, Kyle Nicolas)
• Signing Bonuses: $12.00M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Kahlil Watson (N/A), No. 16 overall; Joe Mack (N/A), No. 31 overall.
• WAR Leader: None.
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $11.26M

+ 2017-21 Totals

• WAR: 7.7 WAR
• ML'ers: 16
• Bonuses: $59.14M
• Return on Investment: 7.68M per 1.0 WAR (ranked No. 23 overall)

SUMMARY: Not much to look at here outside of 2017 1st round LHP Trevor Rogers who has accumulated 2.9 of Miami's 7.7 total WAR and late round, overachieving LHPs Alex Vesia and Andrew Nardi who have each accumulated 1.6 WAR. Every 1st round pick from 2018-2021 has underachieved (2022 as well if we want to early include Jacob Berry). Connor Scott hit .196 last season as a 23 year-old in Double-A. JJ Bleday, traded to Oakland, is a career .183 hitter in the Major Leagues. Kameron Misner was also traded and hit .223 in Triple-A last summer. Max Meyer missed all of the 2023 season due to TJ surgery after an unspectacular six inning debut in 2022. Khalil Watson is a career .234 hitter over 765 plate appearances and Joe Mack even worse at .217 over 761 PAs. The Marlins lack of hitter development is alarming. The draft can be a crapshoot, but dumb luck alone should have better results. This illustrates one of the opening statements in our MLB Review from last week- “we can't emphasize enough that an organization’s amateur acquisition successes and failures are the product of a joint effort by scouting and player development.” Something is obviously missing and here’s hoping that trailblazer Rachel Balkovec can help cure what ails these sick fish as the recently hired Director of Player Development. However, with just one current MLB top 100 prospect (2023 1st round RHP Noble Meyer) it may take some time.

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NEW YORK METS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: David Peterson (2.6 WAR), No.  20 overall.
• WAR Leader: Peterson
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 2.6 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 3 (Peterson, Mark Vientos, Josh Walker)
• Signing Bonuses: $7.89M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Jarred Kelenic (0.0 WAR), No. 6 overall.
• WAR Leader: Tylor Megill (1.5 WAR; 8th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 1.6 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 6 (Kelenic, Megill, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Bryce Montes de Oca, Allan Winans)
• Signing Bonuses: $11.02M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Brett Baty (-1.1 WAR), No. 12 overall.
• WAR Leader: Baty
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 1 (Baty)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.50M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-0.1 WAR), No. 19 overall.
• WAR Leader: Crow-Armstrong
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 1 (Crow-Armstrong)
• Signing Bonuses: $9.50M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Kumar Rocker (did not sign), No. 10 overall.
• WAR Leader: None.
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $7.50M

+ 2017-21 Totals

• WAR: 4.2
• ML'ers: 10
• Bonuses: $40.25M
• Return on Investment: $9.58M per 1.0 WAR (ranked No. 26 overall)

SUMMARY: If you think draft & development times aren’t good in Miami, travel up the East Coast to the Big Apple. Once the leaders of the NL East, the Metropolitans paced the division with a $2.39M ROI in our last study from 2022. Fast-forward to the present day where the Mets rank 26th out of 30 in ROI and in total WAR. They also rank 29th in the total number of Major Leaguers produced with 10 overall. LHP David Peterson is the lone positive WAR producer from the entire 2017 draft class. He’s also the only 1st round pick by the Mets over the five years of this research who has a positive career WAR. The 2018 1st round OF Jarred Kelenic looked to have it all, but has scuffled to find consistent success in the Major Leagues. Their 2019 1st round bat Brett Baty (19 years, 8 months on draft day) anchored the age discussion of selecting older preps in the early rounds. After 112 games and 353 at-bats producing a .212 batting average and .323 SLG% in 2023, the 2024 season looks to be a telling year for him. Bobby Witt, Jr. has since debunked some of the age talk, but it is a significant piece of many organizations' draft analytics to this day. And we are well-versed on the Mets selection and non-sign of Kumar Rocker at 10th overall in 2021. On the brighter side, 2020 1st round CF Pete Crow-Armstrong has a chance to produce significant WAR in 2024, but it likely won’t be in a Mets uniform. PCA was traded to the Cubs at 2021's trade deadline. He went hitless in his 14 at-bat debut in 2023, but still just 21 years old, he remains a highly touted prospect for his center field defense, predominantly.

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Adam Haseley (1.4 WAR), No. 8 overall.
• WAR Leader: Connor Brogdon (2.24 WAR; 10th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 4.4 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 8 (Haseley, Brogdon, Spencer Howard, Connor Seabold, Dalton Guthrie, Nick Maton, Kyle Dohy, Damon Jones)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.79M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Alec Bohm (0.8 WAR), No. 3 overall.
• WAR Leader: Matt Vierling (1.2 WAR; 4th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 2.6 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 4 (Bohm, Vierling, James McArthur, Logan O'Hoppe)
• Signing Bonuses: $8.78M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Bryson Stott (5.4 WAR), No. 14 overall.
• WAR Leader: Stott
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 5.4 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 1 (Stott)
• Signing Bonuses: $8.78M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Mick Abel (N/A), No. 15 overall.
• WAR Leader: None.
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $5.70M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Andrew Painter (N/A), No. 13 overall.
• WAR Leader: None.
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 0
• Signing Bonuses: $9.53M

+ 2017-21 Totals

• WAR: 12.4
• ML'ers: 13
• Bonuses: $46.14M
• Return on Investment: $3.72M per 1.0 WAR (ranked No. 19 overall)

SUMMARY: With major changes to both their scouting and player development departments in 2019-2020, the Phils have quickly climbed out of the bottom of the NL East. The low returns from the selection of Haseley in 2017 have been compensated by 2019 1st rounder Bryson Stott, who posts positive results on both sides of the ball. The Phils are still waiting on 2018 1st rounder Alec Bohm to have a true breakout season at the plate, but 2023 was certainly a nice step in the right direction. The 2020 and 2021 1st round prep RHPs Mick Abel and Andrew Painter give the Phils a pair of potential rotation pieces in time. Abel is the No. 45 ranked prospect in MLB, while Painter checks in at No. 28. There are a few bright spots from the 2017 draft still, since 10th round RHP Connor Brogdon carved out a big league career as a middle reliever and 33rd round RHP Ben Brown is a great story. Signed for $60,000 he was traded to the Cubs in 2022 and has risen to the No. 86 overall prospect on MLB Pipeline. Overall, the Phillies look like a good bet to continue their surge in the years to come with current WAR producers in Stott and Bohm, as well as high-ranking prospects Painter and Abel progressing to make an impact.

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WASHINGTON NATIONALS

+ 2017 MLB Draft

• First Round: Seth Romero (-0.2 WAR), No. 25 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jake Cousins (1.0 WAR; 20th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 1.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 5 (Romero, Cousins, Wil Crowe, Jackson Tetreault, Gabe Klobosits)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.65M

+ 2018 MLB Draft

• First Round: Mason Denaburg (N/A), No. 27 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jake Irvin (1.1 WAR; 4th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 1.1 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 5 (Irvin, Cody Wilson, Evan Lee, Tyler Cropley, Aaron Fletcher)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.91M

+ 2019 MLB Draft

• First Round: Jackson Rutledge (-0.2 WAR), No. 17 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jake Alou (-0.1 WAR; 24th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 3 (Walker, Alou, Amos Willingham)
• Signing Bonuses: $7.68M

+ 2020 MLB Draft

• First Round: Cade Cavalli (-0.3 WAR), No. 22 overall.
• WAR Leader: Cavalli
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.0 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 1 (Cavalli)
• Signing Bonuses: $6.65M

+ 2021 MLB Draft

• First Round: Brady House (N/A), No. 11 overall.
• WAR Leader: Jacob Young (0.6 WAR; 7th Round)
• All Drafts Total WAR Combined: 0.6 WAR
• ML'ers to date: 1 (Young)
• Signing Bonuses: $10.11M

+ 2017-21 Totals

• WAR: 2.7
• ML'ers: 14
• Bonuses: $37.99M
• Return on Investment: $14.07M per 1.0 WAR (ranked No. 29 overall)

SUMMARY: How bad has it been in D.C.? So bad that 2019's 3rd round INF Drew Mendoza is already playing Indy ball after posting a .220 average over three seasons in the Nats’ farm system. The maximum total WAR from any draft class is 1.1 and that total was produced solely by Jake Irvin, a 4th rounder in 2018. To add insult to injury, not a single Washington 1st round pick from 2017-2021 has produced a positive career WAR. The semi-bright side is that 2021 1st rounder Brady House is currently ranked as the No. 40 prospect in MLB, according to Pipeline, after batting .324 in 36 games as a 20 year-old in Double-A last summer. The 7th rounder from that same year, OF Jacob Young, has also enjoyed some early success, producing a 0.6 WAR last season. However, that’s about it as the Nationals’ ROI ranks 29th and their total WAR (2.7) is dead last. The need for improvement is not a secret. The Nationals’ top brass recently orchestrated a rebuild of both the scouting and player development departments. Specific to amateur scouting, Danny Haas was hired away from the D-Backs to lead a slimmed-down department; four others will serve in a director and crosscheck roles. Six area scouts and another who serves in a dual area scout/crosschecker role will comprise a hierarchy that looks a bit top heavy when compared to traditional set ups.

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