A breakthrough after a change of scenery happens in all walks of life. In baseball, it happens at all levels. At the Major League level examples are too numerous to list them all, but a pair of right-handers (Dave Stewart, Dennis Eckeresly) making the journey in the mid-1980s from the NL to the Oakland A’s in the AL are the first two that come to mind. Or more recently, Charlie Morton signing with the Houston Astros in 2017 and achieving unprecedented success as a two-time All-Star who won at least 14 games in each of the next five seasons, excluding the 2020 covid shortened season. He was joined in Space City by Justin Verlander then Gerritt Cole, and their work with Brent Strom and the Astros’ Major League staff is legendary. 

At the collegiate level we were all amazed by what Paul Skenes did with more time to concentrate on baseball while surrounded by elite resources after his transfer from the Air Force Academy to LSU. He certainly didn’t struggle as a cadet, but the jump in his stuff over nine months may be unprecedented for a prospect his age.

The 2024 college season saw Chase Burns portal from Tennessee to Wake Forest on his way to becoming the second overall pick in this past summer’s draft, but one could argue that may have occurred regardless of his collegiate home. He entered as a college freshman throwing 100+ fuzz and completed his junior season with the same nasty. A few other higher-profile prospects who transferred last summer before their draft year of 2024 included Luke Holman (Alabama to LSU), Aiden May (Arizona to Oregon State), Payton Tolle (Wichita State to TCU), Khal Stephan (Purdue to Mississippi State) and Josh Randall (Arizona to San Diego).

Once again this summer the transfer portal was packed with talented pitching prospects who were looking for “greener grass.” Below, a look at a dandy dozen who possess the stuff and metrics to take their game to a much higher level this spring, as well as offering some insights into what we believe could hasten their development on the bump.

MAINSTREAM LEFTIES

Matthew Dallas, Tennessee to Wake Forest- The 6-foot-5, 195-pounder appeared in 15 games for the Vols last season. He posted a 4.76 ERA in 17 innings, to go along with 22 strikeouts and 10 walks. Now in Winston-Salem he’s a projection play for us with an above-average release height and plus extension that are the reasons for a 29.3% (95th percentile) Fastball Whiff, despite it averaging just 90.1 mph with 13” of IVB last spring. His best off speed pitch is a mid-80s change-up with 13” of arm-side life at 85 mph. It’s a pitch that he should throw more at Wake. Dallas also throws a big sweeper with some depth at 80 mph and 14.5” of glove-side movement and his curve is more of a slurve with non-notable results and does not seem viable at present. Similar in size and build to former Deacon Josh Hartle, Dallas just needs to fill out, gain additional strength and prepare for a jump in velocity.

Alton Davis II, Alabama to Georgia- Slender-built at 6-foot-5, 185-pounds, Davis has a world of upside in his live arm. Last season for the Tide he punched out 38 in 33.2 innings to go along with a 5.61 ERA and 17 walks. Long-limbed with plus extension from a 6-foot release height, this allows for a steep vertical approach angle and advantageous results when down in the zone. Despite averaging 93.8 mph with his fastball last spring and sitting 96-97 for Team USA this summer, he does not draw much swing-miss on his fastball, likely due to average carry for his release. Davis also spins two potentially above-average or better breaking balls: a slider and a sweepy slurve. Both pitches average near 80 mph with whiff rates over 35%, though I think he will need to commit to a downer shape on the slurve. Davis should miss more bats and with a couple of adjustments he will, allowing his draft value to shoot into day one.

Cade Fisher, Florida to Auburn- Fisher appeared in 26 games, making nine starts and striking out 76 in 59.1 innings for the Gators last season. That’s the good news. The bad was a 7.13 ERA and 29 walks. Standing 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Fisher has a true outlier release, a low three-quarter slot with just over a 5-foot release height, and above average extension has allowed his two-seam fastball to play at a high level. It’s anywhere from 90-93 mph (90.2 average) and thrown with more control than command. His slider is a strong average offering at 74-79 mph with 12” of sweep. It does back up too often, but when it bites, it’s a swing/miss offering that resulted in a 91st percentile Z-Whiff rate (total swing/misses inside the zone / total swings on pitches in the zone) last spring. Fisher’s third pitch has a true arm side run profile, but has had mixed results on balls in play. With just an 8th percentile (47.7%) strike rate, this pitch is in obvious need of improvement, as well as developing more command than just control of his entire arsenal.

Zach Root, East Carolina to Arkansas- One of the top prospects in the 2025 draft class, Root started 12 games and appeared in 13 for ECU last season posting a 3.56 ERA in 68.1 innings of work. The 6-foot-1, 185-pounder also struck out 76 and walked 21. The lefthander potentially has one of the best arsenals in the nation, and what you see is what you get. It’s an off-speed over fastball package, and he throws four of them average or better (change-up, curveball, cutter, slider). The best of the bunch is the curveball. It has two-plane shape at 79 mph with a total vertical depth of -55” which is comparable to current Major Leaguers Cole Ragans and DL Hall and would place him 20th of current qualified Major League left handed starter pitchers. He also drew a 48% whiff rate with a .057 xwOBA against this breaker in 2024. His cutter (86-87 mph) and slider (83-85) profiles are very similar with about an inch of horizontal separation and four inches of vertical separation, and both drew strong Whiff rates and ball-in-play results. There’s a strong pronation bias with his two-seam 91-94 mph fastball that he throws 47% of the time and his low-80s change-up (22% usage) both carry significant arm-side profiles. There’s little doubt in our minds that this arsenal, and the accompanying pitchability, translate to immediate success in the SEC, as well as professional baseball. He’s the number two college lefty on our draft board, sandwiched between Jamie Arnold (Florida State) and Ben Jacobs (Arizona State).

MAINSTREAM RIGHTIES

Evan Chrest, Jacksonville to Florida State- Chrest initially opened many eyes on a national level during the 2023 USA CNT Trials after his freshman season at Jacksonville when he posted a 2.68 ERA with 98 strikeouts in 90.1 innings. And there’s no doubt that he struggled for the Dolphins last season, tallying a 6.96 ERA in 63.1 innings of work as opponents hit him at a ridiculously high clip of .326. However, the upside with the 6-foot, 180-pounder is massive. Chrest has the ability to touch 96 mph with his fastball and he averaged 91.6 mph this past spring, but the shape needs to change. Its current two-plane offering has 16” of vertical and 14.4” of arm-side run. His 5-foot-5 release height creates outlier approach angles, and would allow a true vertical profile fastball to play up in the zone. Crest also possesses outstanding spin traits on an 84 mph 55-grade sweeper with 1.4” of lift and 8” of sweep which drew a 33% Whiff rate last spring. He also has an 89 mph bullet slider/cutter with 3.5” of vertical and 3” of glove-side movement. It’s a potential future plus offering and whiff pitch when blending with a big sweeper and his 4-seam fastball. If those aren't enough weapons, Chrest’s best pitch is an 85 mph changeup with 16” of armside life. He kills spin at a plus level to induce 41.1% Whiff and a 35% Chase. Six-foot college righthanders aren’t the most popular pick during day one of the draft, but Chrest certainly has the potential to become one.

Chandler Dorsey, South Florida to LSU- Dorsey appeared three times in the Cape this summer and made each of them count by throwing a combined 8.1 scoreless innings, while giving up just three hits and striking out 13. The righthander has a physical presence at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds and a fastball that reaches the mid-to-upper-90s. It’s a four-seamer that averaged 95 mph, but with below-average movement (16.5” IVB / 7.3” HB) that he throws from a high release height of 6-foot. The pitch plays best to the upper half. As good as his heater, he threw a slider as his primary pitch with a 49.1% usage in 2024. It’s a true sweeper with -1” IVB and 13” of sweep at 83 mph. Dorsey has feel to land the pitch for strikes and draws whiffs at an above-average level, but will likely need to throw 2-4 mph harder for better outcomes off of his fastball. He also has the makings of a plus CB, -11.2” of depth and 14.2” of sweep, but threw very few in 2024. Moving into 2025, he will need to throw more of them to take the burden off of his slider and needs to explore a fourth pitch in order to start. At the least, Dorsey should be a strong asset for the LSU bullpen and is currently an early day two prospect for this summer’s draft.

Tanner Franklin, Kennesaw State to Tennessee- Franklin heads to Knoxville with a reliever background after tallying a 5.60 ERA in 27.1 innings of work for the Owls last season. This past summer, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound righthander impressed with the Chatham Anglers, sitting anywhere from 93-98 mph with his fastball with solid spin rates around 2500-2600 rpm. It’s a cut/ride fastball with average carry (17.4” IVB) that averaged 93.8 mph last spring. After throwing a slider/cutter blender this spring, he showed two distinct breaking balls this summer with an 84-86 mph slider and a sharp 80-81 mph curveball with spin rates in the 2800-2900 range. Last spring the slider was more of a cutter with 6.3” of lift and -6.4” of sweep. He threw the pitch hard, but will need to commit to either killing vertical for a true slider or throwing the pitch as a true cutter. Currently, he’s in no man’s land and it’s below-average in terms of Whiff rate. There’s little doubt that Franklin has the arm to become the next dominant closer for the Vols, and likely the next member of their Hundy Club that is led by 2022 third-rounder and current MLB reliever, Ben Joyce. However, the development of a true slider with separation from either a cutter or curve will be a necessity.

Jason Reitz, Saint Mary’s to Oregon- Reitz has a chance to become a big-time breakout candidate for the Ducks in 2025 after getting the party started this summer in the Cape where he dominated hitters with an ERA below two and showed an electric 94-96 mph fastball. The 6-foot-9 Reitz has an outlier release height at 7.4 feet on his fastball that also has a slight two-plane profile at 19.4” of carry and 10” of arm-side. However, the pitch is very hittable, drawing just 13.6% whiffs and hit around at a .367 clip with a .570 slugging against last spring. His best present pitch is an 85 mph cutter with 5.5” of vertical and 2” of glove-side movement. This pitch has played best within the strike zone and drew greater than 50% whiffs. The shape of his change-up shape is poor with 10.7” of vertical and 7.8” of horizontal, but he utilized the pitch well and maximized via a steep release angle, allowing him to pitch to quality results of a 75th percentile Whiff rate (47%). Moving forward, Reitz must maximize his outlier release height and simply just pitch down in the zone more often with such a steep angle. A different shape on his change-up may also be of help. If it’s a split he chooses, he's going to want to kill spin more effectively (2100 average rpm on current change-up), giving him more of a unique identity.

SLEEPERS

Leaving mainstream, here are four more worthy of note as potential breakout candidates and draft risers in 2025.

Noah Edders, RHP (Bradley to Troy)- The strong-bodied 6-foot-4, 225-pound Edders averaged just 89.6 mph last season, but prior to his 2022 Tommy John surgery he showed greater velocity at the 2021 Super 60 and his velo has already ticked up to 92-94 mph this fall in Troy. Although his fastball lacked a separating trait in movement or release last spring, his slider had above-average results, drawing 38% Whiff, 31.6% Chase with a .267 xwOBA against. Like his fastball, the shape of his low-80s slider is again average with 2” VB/-3.7” HB. We are big fans of his changeup, which gets 16” of arm-side at 83 mph, while killing spin at a high level, as well as drawing his best ball-in-play results. Edders has work to do, but the potential is still there, especially with the early uptick in velo. He’s also in the right spot with HC Skylar Meade leading the pitching staff for the Trojans.

Michael Gillen, RHP (Seton Hall to Clemson)- Gillen made 17 appearances for Seton Hall last season, tallying a 2.31 ERA in 39 innings of work. He also missed some bats with 43 strikeouts and just 14 walks, while limiting opposing hitters to a .205 OBA. His fastball had average shape for his arm slot, but above average in velocity (92.9 mph) and touching 97 at times. He also throws a huge sweeper with 16.6” of glove-side movement at 80 mph. His feel for the pitch is still building though and part of that work will be to add velocity to the pitch and likely less horizontal separation off of his four-seam fastball. Although mechanically sound with an easy arm swing, Gillen’s arsenal is that of a typical two-pitch reliever. Any refinement to the shape of his fastball and the velocity of his slider will likely boost him into the top ten rounds this summer.

Peter Michael, RHP (Northwestern to Louisville)- Coming off a 15.68 ERA in 10.1 innings for the Wildcats in 2024, Michael has taken his talents to the ACC where he’s already shown a lively 90-93 mph fastball (2500-2600 rpm) and two plus breaking balls that include a low-80s, two-plane slider and late-breaking upper-70s curve. He finishes away from his arm and his lower body mechanics could also be cleaned to allow for increased ground force and velo jumps. He’s also a bit straight legged in his delivery and currently lacks the necessary separation. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthander will battle for the Sunday spot in the rotation, but might be more likely to become a high leverage reliever in front of closer Tucker Biven for the Cardinals this spring.

Trey Peters, RHP (Gonzaga to Western Kentucky)- An Arizona prep, Peters excelled at Chandler-Gilbert CC (Ariz.) before one season in Spokane. After an impressive debut last fall for the Bulldogs against Oregon State when he bumped 95 and spun a 2500-2700 rpm slider, the spring season didn’t fare so well as Peters accumulated a 13.24 ERA over 17 innings. His fastball averaged just 90 mph with more control than command that left too many pitches directly over the plate that found the barrel. And without a reliable secondary option, he lacked a putaway pitch which led to a .429 opponent’s batting average. The fast-armed 6-foot-7 righthander has impressed in early fall workouts for the Hilltoppers. He has already added a two-seamer that sits 92-95 and has touched 97. It’s been tough on hitters and has allowed more room for error with his other pitches which include a newly-added changeup and refinement to his slider, although the latter still needs better shape.