Draft HQ: College Hitter Data Dig
October 15, 2024
Building upon the early identification of some of the top prospects for the 2025 MLB Draft, today we take a look at those college hitters who combine extra bases with high contact rates on pitches in the zone, while limiting the chase on pitches out of the zone. Each MLB team’s model is a bit different, but these three statistics are widely recognized by analysts as key components when evaluating college positional draft prospects.
Last season there was only one hitter in all of Division I college baseball who produced 90th percentile results in all of the following categories:
ISO: slugging minus batting average
Z-Contact: Total pitches inside the zone on which contact was made / Total pitches inside the zone that were swung at
Chase: Total pitches swung at outside the zone / Total pitches seen outside the zone
Cameron Sisneros (East Tennessee State) excelled in all three categories with a 99th percentile in both ISO (.397) and Chase (10.3%) and a 91st percentile of Z-Contact (91.7%). The 6-foot-2, 230-pound lefthanded slugger was selected in the 14th round by the Chicago Cubs.
There were six others who produced at least an 80th percentile grade in all three categories:
Player, School ISO / Z-Contact / Chase
Dixon Black, Wofford 85th / 80th / 91st
Dalton Davis, La Tech 83rd /100th / 86th
JR Freethy, Nevada 87th / 93rd / 89th
Eddie Micheletti, Va Tech 89th / 88th / 92nd
Treyvin Moss, NKU 88th / 99th / 85th
Brian Skettini, Rider 80th / 90th / 80th
JR Freethy was drafted/signed in the 14th round by the Toronto Blue Jays. Undrafted and out of collegiate eligibility, Dalton Davis signed with Florence of the Frontier Independent League. He posted a .395/.495/.721 slash with six home runs and more walks (13) than strikeouts (10) in 104 plate appearances. He will likely turn this success into a MLB affiliated opportunity for spring training of 2025.
Additionally, there were nine who scored at least in the 75th percentile in all three categories.
Player, School ISO / Z-Contact / Chase
Carson Benge, Oklahoma State 95th / 85th / 77th
Krew Boldin, Delaware State 82nd / 75th / 99th
Zach Ehrhard, Oklahoma State 91st / 93rd / 78th
Chris Hacopian, Maryland 82nd / 81st / 76th
Drew Holderbach, Appy State 75th / 82nd / 79th
Steven Loden, Southern Illinois 90th / 79th / 80th
Mark Shallenberger, Evansville 93rd / 92nd / 79th
Myles Smith, UC Irvine 76th / 96th / 94th
Kyle Walker, Grambling 84th / 86th / 79th
Carson Benge is the most famous of the 75th percentile group above. He was selected in the 1st round (19th overall) by the Mets. His Pokes’ teammate Zach Ehrhard was selected in the 4th round by the Red Sox. UC Irvine’s Myles Smith was chosen in the 7th round by the Cincinnati Reds.
Both Drew Holderbach and Mark Shallenberger went undrafted, but signed and played in the MLB Draft League. Holderbach produced a .308/.404/.417 slash for Mahoning Valley and Shallenberger .265/.431.377 for Williamsport.
Among the 16 total who qualified, two return to college baseball this season. The duo is led by Maryland sophomore Chris Hacopian. He hit .323/.431/.578 with 15 homers to earn Freshman All-America honors for the Terrapins this past spring and then tore up the NECBL this summer with a .370/.456/.630, nine home run performance. He stands out for his polished swing and plus to better bat speed. Although he can get a bit pull-heavy at times he has a high level bat-to-ball. Physically, he’s well put together on a 6-foot-1, 210-pound frame, yet it’s his quick-twitch movements that set him apart. He played third base for Maryland as a freshman last season and projects there at the pro level, but with athletic actions at shortstop and plenty of arm strength (plus) for the position, he figures to play there this year as a sophomore. Hacopian is a day one follow for the 2026 draft.
Kyle Walker redshirted as a freshman at Louisiana Tech before transferring to Grambling State for the 2023 and 2024 seasons. After posting a 1.098 OPS with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases for the Tigers last spring he was on the move again, transferring to Arizona State over the summer. Standing 5-foot-9, 185 pounds, he’s a plus runner and steady defender who saw limited playing time for the USA CNT this past summer. Under the tutelage of HC Willie Bloomquist, Walker has already cleaned his feet on the double play pivot and has impressed in Tempe with really good bat speed and the ability to not miss fastballs. Walker also has the run speed to steal a base when needed. Walker is a day two follow for the 2025 draft.