MLB Draft Preview & Predictions: Pitchers

College: University of Missouri

 

Also recruited as a Division I quarterback, Graves athleticism gives him a higher ceiling than many would expect. A two-way standout on the mound and at shortstop for Class 4A champions Francis Howell, he has had droves of scouts at all his starts and is probably the second-most cross-checked player in the state after Eierman.

 

Graves’ 6-foot-1, 170-pound frame suggests that there’s room for him to fill out. And with a fastball that sits between 88-91 mph and topped out at 93 mph in his start on June 3^rd in the state semifinals, an increase in his velocity isn’t all that far fetched. He has a loose, quick arm that leads to occasional control issues with his off-speed pitches. His slider is a good one when he has it working and he has made noticeable strides with the feel of his changeup.

 

He was named the Gatorade Player of the Year last week after finishing the season 9-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 61 innings. At the plate, Graves scored 49 runs as Howell’s leadoff man, and hit .441 with 12 doubles, six home runs, 35 RBI and 12 stolen bases.

Prediction: Graves should be the first prep arm selected in Missouri’s draft class due to his athleticism and experience, but his signability poses as a risk. Look for him to be selected somewhere in the 8^th-12^th round.

 

 

College: University of Iowa

 

A fixture on the Junior Billikens’ staff for several years now, Sasha was the undisputed ace on this year’s team, which finished the regular season undefeated and atop the PBR Top 25 rankings in Missouri. In the Class of 2011, good, left-handed pitchers are few and far between. Kuebel, however, is one of the elite, prep southpaws in the state due to his command of three pitches, as well as his confidence on the mound.

 

With a heavy 84-87 mph (tops out at 88 mph) fastball that features late, arm-side run, Kuebel works in his off-speed pitches effortlessly and repeatedly keeps the opposition off balance. While his sharp curveball does generate it’s fair share of swing-and-misses, it’s his changeup that gives opposing hitters—especially right-handed hitters—a tough time; he throws it with nearly identical arm speed as his fastball, and it generates a late fade.

 

This spring, Sasha was 6-1 with a save, 1.98 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 53 innings. The fact that he wants to be on the mound with the game on the line—he fired six complete games this season—and doesn’t allow his hubris to get the best of him, only makes him a more attractive draft pick.

 

Prediction: Look for Kuebel to selected somewhere between 15^th and 20^th round, although there is an outside chance he could be picked earlier.

 

College: Missouri

 

No pitcher has seen his stock increase more over the past year than Miles. At 6-foot-3, 200-pounds, he possesses a big league frame with fluid mechanics. The right-hander boasts a fastball that sits 87-88 mph, but considering his free-and-easy delivery, he should be touching 90 mph in the near future. In addition to his well-located fastball, Miles also throws a plus slider, and throws it with astounding accuracy for this level. It’s currently his best pitch--although his changeup is above average, as well--and he clearly feels comfortable throwing it in all counts.

 

What separates Miles from most upper-80s arms is that he understands the purpose and importance of each pitch. This season, he displayed excellent command of each of his pitches, which, in turn, allowed him to pitch efficiently and work deep into every start.

 

As the ace of what was arguably the state’s deepest starting rotation, Miles was 6-0 with two complete games and a 1.14 ERA. He struck out 61 and walked just seven batters over 43 innings this spring. He turned a lot of heads this season when he out-dueled Francis Howell’s Brett Graves with nearly a dozen college and MLB scouts in attendance.

 

Prediction: There’s a whole lot to like about the lanky right-hander: his frame; consistent but quick arm speed; command of three pitches; and overall confidence. Miles is as deserving of a serious look as any other right-hander in the state. Look for him to get drafted between rounds 17-22, but don’t be surprised if he slides up a few rounds.

 

 

College: Stanford

 

A key member of CBC’s 2010 Class 4A championship team, Schmidt has emerged as one of the state’s top arms over the last two years. At 6-feet, 170-pounds, the right-hander boasts the best fastball in the state, clocked at 92-94 mph in several outings this spring. Schmidt isn’t just a pitcher; he’s a genuine athlete. When he wasn’t on the mound for the Cadets, he roamed the outfield, and it wasn’t until last year that he stopped playing hockey. 

 

His arm motion is short and powerful, and when he’s locating fastball it generates some nice arm-side action. While there are several guys who either touch or near the 90 mph mark early in the game, Schmidt is the only pitcher that will sit 90-92 mph the entire game. In a complete game earlier in the season, I had him at 92 mph numerous times in his final inning. The right-hander shows a lot of confidence in his slider, which has late, downward bite when thrown well. With his arm speed, further development of his changeup will be key to his success at the next level, whether it be collegiate or professional baseball. Schmidt had another strong season this spring, as he was 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 55 strikeouts in just over 50 innings of work.

 

Prediction: Even though which ever team drafts him will have to offer him enough money to pass on Stanford, there will undoubtedly be a team(s) hoping to lock down the best fastball in Missouri. Schmidt is an excellent student, smart pitcher and tough competitor, and could be selected anywhere from the 8^th-11^th round.

 

College: Missouri State

 

Burgess is the epitome of a strikeout artist. On the mound, he has that rare combination of finesse and overpowering dominance – the kind that leads to the shattering of school and state records. For example, in late May, Burgess fired a shutout against Willard for the 11^th (at least) of his prep career – a new state record. He also is the proud owner of two no-hitters.

 

With his over-the-top delivery and four-pitch arsenal, the left-hander has put together an impressive career as the Cardinals’ ace. As a junior, Burgess was 13-1 with a 0.75 ERA and 142 strikeouts for Webb City, who were the Class 4A runner-up. This year, he was 8-2 with seven complete games and five shutouts. In 73 innings, Burgess fanned 119 batters while walking only 22.

 

Even though he may not throw as hard as some scouts would like, and his arm angle raises other concerns, there’s something to be said for what Burgess is able to do on the mound. At 6-foot, 185-pounds, his fastball sits between 87-88 mph and is thrown with precision, while his changeup comes in 10-12 mph slower. Burgess also features a sharp curveball around 70 mph, as well as a cutter that he continues to develop. 

 

What makes Burgess so effective and equally tough on right-handers as left-handers, is the deception caused by his delivery. He repeats his mechanics better than one would expect and has nearly the same amount of arm action for all of his pitches.

 

Prediction: Burgess’ mechanics and arm action make him a unique risk from a scouting perspective, but it all depends on who you ask. The southpaw has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the state from an unorthodox release point, and if there are Division I programs who subscribe to his style, then he should slide his way onto various team’s draft boards. Look for Burgess to be selected between the 25^th and 30^th round.