A Look Ahead: Burning Questions

LOS ANGELES, CALIF. - The 2023 season comes as most, with more questions than answers. With so much still unknown, one can only wait for the answers to come. And while some answers will come soon, others will take longer to reveal themselves. And while the wait can seem endless, the reality is that we are a few weeks away from baseball games counting towards league, division, area, and section championships. 

And in those coming weeks we’ll learn so much as we kick off the season with the PBR California Preseason Invitational. The 16 team field is set to play a bracketed tournament with the championship to be held at the Great Park Stadium on Tuesday, 21 2023. The first big championship of the season will be handed out ten days after the season starts which will lead to even more questions; the cycle doesn’t end until it does,  with a team hoisting their respective division and section’s trophy. 

After providing some thoughts on the upcoming season and as we march towards the beginning of the season, here are some burning questions I will be seeking answers for this spring. 

BURNING QUESTIONS

Who is going to be the Division I team that is in the hunt near the end that nobody expected?...It seems to happen every year when a team has that magical ride. A team like Palos Verdes last year who made it to the CIF-SS D2 semis; A team like Pacifica who marched its way to a quarter finals appearance in the same division. Newport Harbor, champions of Division 3 may be the best example. Not many outside of their own dugout believed they were capable of accomplishing that last year. There are many more examples to cite in years past. The point is, it happens every year. The key is to catch it before it’s gone. A couple teams that could be the 2023 version of those teams include Santiago, Calabasas, Newbury Park, and Capo Valley Christian. 

Will Damien continue to show progress and growth in Year Two for AJ Lamonda?...Damien has talent on the mound and at the plate along with a roster full of veterans. There is speed and strong defense in the outfield. There are Division I committed arms on the mound. There is some power and savvy at the plate. The competition Damien will face will be stout, but with the combination of veteran leadership and excellent coaching, there should be no situation that they haven’t seen before. Granted, you never know what you’re going to get when the game starts, but there should be a quiet confidence for a team that has the firepower that Damien has. Could be a fun year for the veteran Spartans for whom there should be a sense of urgency.   

Will Arcadia continue the run they’ve been on the last 4-5 seasons?...What coach Lemas has done with the Apache program the last half decade has been awesome to watch. They’ve won league titles and made noise in the postseason. They seemingly have players to watch every year. Coming off three of the best seasons in recent history, the Apaches are once again primed for another big year. It’s a tip of the cap to a community school doing right by its community with a quality baseball program and that’s something that’s easy to root for. 

Will Santa Margarita burst people's Trinity League bracket?...Given the depth of their roster the Eagles aren’t going to sneak up on anyone. However, after winning the CIF-SS D2 title in 2019 it’s been a pair of early exits from the postseason that haven’t gotten past the second round. You can expect that to change this year as the Eagles have the type of offense, defense, and pitching (albeit young and unproven in some spots) to make a deep postseason run this season. It seems like we’ve been building towards this year since that championship season after which most of this loaded senior class came in. 

Is this the year for El Dorado?...Head coach Matt Lucas has three legitimate arms, one of the best hitters in the county, and plenty of other hitters that can do damage. Defensively El Dorado is stout up the middle as well as the corners. Their pitchers let their defense play and at times it’s a thing of beauty. I’ve been bullish on this team since last year when their junior-laden team really broke out. They’re playing loose, confident baseball right now which I don’t see changing when the season starts. They’re well coached and, most importantly, you get the sense that these seniors have set the tone of playing for each other and the collective good of the team. Seems like that tough, gritty El Dorado brand of baseball is back as these guys don’t appear in awe which is good as they’ll get tested out the gate in the PBR CA Preseason Invitational. 

Will Eric Bitonti, Roman Martin, Gavin Grahovac, Will Gasparino or someone else be the top area player taken in the MLB Draft?...I'm really going out on a limb, I know. But this is SoCal and every year in SoCal there’s a player that was either not on, or low on, scouts radars that has the type of season that vaults him up boards. Seems to happen every year - here’s looking at you Brandon Winokur  and Anthony Huezo. That would be quite the leap to overcome the aforementioned players, but hey, it’s baseball and it’s the draft, anything can happen.  There are other candidates to surpass the aforementioned players, but it will be a tough task. Of course, when you consider all the factors that go into drafting players, the one that few think about is signability. Is a player willing to sign for what he perceives to be less than he’s worth? Some are; some aren’t. And while there’s a LOOOOONG way to go until July’s MLB Draft, you can almost count on a SoCal player to continue the recent stretch of first rounders from the area. 

How good is Vista Murrieta going to be?...The Broncos have an opportunity to have a magical season out of the Southwestern League. They’ve got a loaded pitching staff and their lineup/defense is amongst the best in the region. They can bang and they can play small ball. They’re sound defensively with one of the most underrated shortstops in the region who also stars on the hardwood. Here’s the thing, just about all of their impact guys will be back next year! Their pitching will feature a bonafide ace along with two sophomores who will likely garner that distinction in the coming years. Given the proximity of schools to each other, the Southwestern League games come with that built in crosstown rivalry. Games aren’t always easy, but they’re usually very entertaining. Going to be fun to follow because the Broncos should have a chance to make a deep playoff run. 

Will the tide of transfers ever slow down?...I get this question a lot from coaches, parents, and players and I believe the answer is simple and hard to accept in some cases. Players want to win. Coaches want to win. Parents want their sons to experience winning. As such, the increased numbers of players transferring seems to be at an all time high. I’m old enough to remember when you went to high school games dreaming of one day playing for your local school. That, unfortunately, seems to have fallen by the wayside in many communities. I’m not here to tell people how to raise their children, but there’s no better feeling than playing alongside your buddies that you went to elementary and junior high school with. What was once a move dictated by a physical residential move is now being driven by the promise of athletic glory. I've even heard of transfers occurring because people - "scouts", club coaches, and "street agents" - are convincing kids that a move is in their best interest. Kids are transferring from public to private schools and vice versa. As most adults have come to learn, the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. We’re seeing kids transferring to schools in their own league for no other reason than the team they’re going to is “better” than their previous school. It’s all a bit messy and, unfortunately, a sign of the times where coaches and teammates are left holding the bag for their departed teammate. Sadly, this appears to be something that isn't going away anytime soon. 

Does the Mission League rival the Trinity League for best league or is better?...The Trinity League is widely viewed as the best league in the state if not America. The Mission League also has a distinguishable reputation amongst the best. So, let’s take a closer look at the numbers. Since 2013 - there were no finals in 2020 due to Covid - in six of the last nine CIF-SS D1 finals one or both teams were from the Mission League or Trinity League. The last two CIF-SS D1 finals were Mission League v Trinity League finals; they split. The Mission League has had a team in the finals five of the last nine years; the Trinity League has had three. The Mission League has won two championships (both by Harvard Westlake); the Trinity League has also won two (‘14 Santa Margarita and ‘22 JSerra). Harvard Westlake has been in four of the last nine finals, more than any other team in the Southern Section. This may paint a picture about one program, but make no mistake that every team in these leagues is capable of beating anybody else. There’s depth, talent, and a commitment to baseball in these two leagues. You find that at schools elsewhere, but when it’s a top-to-bottom commitment from a league perspective it changes things. Which one is best? I’ll let you decide. They’re both great fun to watch. 

Will someone hit .500 in the Southern Section?...Probably the most difficult question to answer given how much has to go right for a player to accomplish that. There has to be streaks. And coaches normally don’t like to pitch to guys that are in the midst of those types of streaks. There are guys that are going to get theirs regardless who will be pitched around; we saw that in the playoffs last year. More teams are using the shift. Yes, the shift! So, who knows? It would be a fun ride to follow.  

Will Corona be the last team standing this year?...If you follow high school baseball in the area you know a few things about Corona baseball under head coach Andy Wise. One, they’re gonna come at you the entire game. Two, they’re going to be well coached while they do it. Three, there’s never a dull moment watching them if you know what I mean. Corona has about as good a roster on paper as anybody in the state of California. The Panthers haven’t made the CIF-SS D1 Final since 2017. And, much like Vista Murrieta above, the Panthers bring just about everyone of significance back next year. Odds are with that talent both on the roster and on the coaching staff that the Panthers are going to be there in the end.   

How do private schools get away with recruiting?...Let me start by saying this, if you think that private schools are the only schools recruiting then you don’t have the full story. Many people think about recruiting as a coach calling a player and convincing him he should come to their school. In all my years of doing this in SoCal I have never heard a story of that being the case, at least not with the head coach involved. However, if you look a little closer, recruiting happens in many, many different forms. There are plenty of instances over the years where a player has decided to attend one school over another - don’t get me started on the ridiculous trend of 8th graders announcing their high school choices on social media; that’s just stupid - for what appears to be strictly athletic reasons. The bottom line is we live in a world now where kids are being driven by the idea that they need to attend a certain school or play in a specific league to receive the opportunities to play collegiately that they seek. The problem with that is this, just like they think they’re going to be the next first rounder out of that school, so do dozens of other kids that are going there and as we know, only nine players are on the field for a team at a time. Kids are going to schools, mainly via transfer, for a number of reasons and being pushed to that decision by people who have their ear. Whether that's a club coach, a high school coach, or maybe just a player's friends, unless there's something done that is simply egregious there's no way of knowing exactly who is recruiting who. 

How good can La Mirada be this year?...Gone are the days of the generational-like talent of Jared Jones, but don’t feel bad for the Matadores as the program is humming right along. They’re young at positions that matter, but that youth has boundless talent. Don’t be fooled, there’s plenty of senior leadership on this team too and it too is talented. La Mirada appears to have reached reload levels with its program and there are a few constants with that. You know they’re going to compete; you know they’re going to be prepared; and you know their fans are going to travel. This year's team has the makings of one that can make a run because it doesn’t know any better. And with a new stadium and facility due to be completed in time for next season, one that will be all turf and include lights, the Matadores reload will only likely continue. 

Why doesn’t the Moore League get more love outside of the Long Beach area?...The Moore league is annually one of the best leagues in SoCal. It is a gem of baseball talent based primarily out in Long Beach and the surrounding areas. If you look at the history of the league there’s plenty of Big Leaguers and collegiate players that come out of there. Why then does the league not get the fanfare that it deserves? Great question. When in college, I lived two blocks from Blair Field where a lot of the league games are played. You could pop in on a Tuesday night game between Millikan and Lakewood and have 6,7,800 people in the stands. This year should be no different with the amount of quality teams in the league. Outside of some of the aforementioned leagues, the Moore League is, in my opinion, one of the best in SoCal. Tip of the cap to our friends at the 562.org for their amazing coverage of that league. 

What’s the deal with players opting to play in spring leagues rather than for their high schools?...I get this question a lot and I’ll do my best to provide an answer. Please remember this is my opinion and nothing that has been researched or proven by facts. It seems like this trend has gained steam in recent years, but it’s not a new phenomenon. Players have been doing this for the better part of the last decade and a half. There’s many reasons why a player would choose to do this, too many to list/discuss here. Ultimately it’s a personal choice made by a player and his family. Are there benefits to doing this? Maybe. In the past I covered one of these leagues every Sunday. And while there were some good players sprinkled across a few teams, the overall competition level was just okay. There were anomalies, like the arm that touched 96 mph one day in front of zero pro scouts; or the hitter that went yard three times in a game and the fifth time in six at-bats. Again, in front of zero pro scouts. In the end, if a player decides to play in a spring league rather than for their high school, they’re going to have to accept that their opportunities to be seen by decision makers is seriously impacted.

Will the new Commissioner of the CIF-SS value baseball as much as the current Commissioner?...In a word, unlikely. Rob Wigod, the current and retiring Commissioner of the CIF-SS is one of the biggest baseball guys you’ll meet. He played the game, he coached at the high school level, and you’ll be hard pressed to find someone as locked in on the sport as he is. Wigod has done great, great things for the game of high school baseball in the Southern Section elevating it from a “niche” sport to a frontline, forward facing championship in the region. While we may not likely see his replacement carry the cache that Wigod does in the baseball community, here’s to hoping that he/she sees the value and the quality of the product put out by the players and coaches in his/her section. 

Will we ever see a state championship in California?...Depending on who you talk to this is either going to happen in the next couple of years or it’s never going to happen. It’s all a matter of perspective. While some may look at the current regional championships, the limitations recently put on schedules (28 games max), and the moved up start dates  as a sign that the steps are in place for a state championship. Others view the above changes as limitations with no real strategy/plan in place for a state championship. I tend to fall on the side of the former rather than the latter. It’s pretty apparent that CIF-State and its member associations are working hard to try and bring a true state championship to California, not a de-facto one. It would make sense to me, and just about everyone who follows the game, that given the state of high school baseball - the talent, the programs, and the coaches - in California that a true state champion is necessary. My colleagues around the country are blown away every time I tell them there’s no state champ in what is widely considered the best state for high school baseball. And, quite honestly, so am I. Give it time as I think we’ll see this happen sooner than later.