2024 MLB Draft: Under the Radar College Hitters
June 26, 2024
We've all read about Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, Jac Caglianone, JJ Wetherholt -- all slam dunk top of the first-rounders.
But how about these draft sleepers who have the tools and metrics to back their draft value?
Nathan Archer, Junior, OF, Bowling Green- A middle of the diamond speed/power prospect, Archer is a plus runner with developing juice. The 6-foot, 175-pound left handed hitter shows strong bat to ball skills in areas, especially the upper half and inside three-quarters of the strike zone, but he still must refine his approach and patience at the plate. His swing doesn’t cover much of the outer quarter of the plate which inflated a 22.1% strikeout rate this season. His max EV of 109 mph and 18 home runs this spring, combined with 39 stolen bases over his three-year college career give a glimpse of the impact he’s made on that side of the ball and there’s realistic projection for future improvement with his strong aptitude and athleticism. (Seifert)
Owen Ayers, Senior, C, Marshall- A switch-hitter with plus arm strength and a maximum EV of 112 mph (plus raw power) at the plate, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound backstop also has an excellent 90th percentile exit velocity of 107. A high ball hitter, he slugged 25 doubles and eight home runs this spring to go along with a .292 batting average. With the hard to find tools of power arm/power bat behind the plate, he’s a no-doubt top 10 round pool saver. (Seifert)
Carter Dorighi, Junior, SS, Butler- After batting .374 for the Bulldogs this spring, Dorighi is now tearing up the MLB Draft League with a .417 batting average through his first 60 at-bats. The left handed hitter has a high level bat-to-ball skill with a line drive approach and some pop to his pull side. His maximum EV this season is 106 mph. Dorighi is also a plus runner and very athletic. Additionally, he brings intangibles with his great makeup and leadership abilities. He will likely move to second base or center field as a pro, or become a super utility type in the mold of Tommy Edman. The back half of Day Two is his likely landing spot. (Seifert)
Joel Dragoo, CF, Presbyterian- Dragoo’s been great this year for Presbyterian College, hitting .406 with a .529 wOBA in 55 games. He doesn’t whiff or chase much, and has been great against breaking balls and velocity in a limited sample. With him, it’s SLG on all pitch types offering a .560 xSLG on off-speed pitches. There’s above-average power here also, posting a 111 mph max EV and a 91.4 mph average EV. He’s got a feel for loft also with a 19.6 degree launch angle on his hard-hits this year. This is another great athlete with a well rounded offensive profile, the kind of guy who has all the tools to make contributions at the pro level. (Earl)
Jon Jon Gazdar, 4th-Yr Junior, SS, Austin Peay- After posting a .361 batting average for Hyannis last summer in the Cape, the right handed hitting Gazdar is back at it again, producing a .364 average through 33 at-bats this summer. In between, he kept hitting for the Govs this spring with a .405/.484/.667 slash. Obviously, his hit tool is the one tool that jumps out, but he’s also an 80-grade competitor. At shortstop he’s a dependable defender who makes the routine plays, but a move to second base at the pro level is most likely due to fringe arm strength and run speed/range. Expect Gazdar to be considered for selection towards the end of Day Two. (Seifert)
Cade McGee, 3B, Texas Tech- After two seasons at Gonzaga, McGee transferred to Texas Tech for his junior year. For the Red Raiders, McGee has replicated the success he had in the WCC, slashing .277/.446/.574. While his slash line is strong, it doesn’t paint the full picture. While he possesses 50-grade power, McGee’s contact quality is high end. It’s an average EV of 91.4 mph with a 23 degree average launch angle. He had a .387 xwOBA on contact and a 50% hard hit rate as well. The hit tool here projects. He doesn’t chase much and has quality whiff numbers, 14% in-zone and 22.7% overall. McGee’s swing is geared to loft, and his launch angles stabilize near his averages at an encouraging level. While he does project to play third base at the next level, carrying an above-average arm and more than adequate athleticism, he may also explore catching at the next level. (Earl)
Rafe Perich, 3B, Lehigh- Perich’s tools are loud across the board. His balls in play this year are hit on average 95.3 mph with a 109 mph 90th percentile EV and 114.5 max. It’s plus thump with quality results, posting a .401 xwOBAcon. The bat-to-ball skills here are standout, he doesn't whiff much and is even better in zone, with a 5.2% IZ Whiff. The chase rate is 15% as well. It’s a passive approach with some low launch angles (7.1 average, 6.8 on his hard-hits), but it’s a strong bodied 6-foot-3 with athleticism, a hit tool and plus or better power. (Earl)
Sammy Sass, Senior, C, Wright State- Sass is solid in all areas of the game and overall is just a good “baseball player” who will likely receive strong consideration from several clubs on Day Three. He has some pop in his stick (max EV 109 mph), as well as a feel to hit at the plate, and good balance to his slugging outputs by pitch location. He had a breakout season in 2024 with a .362/.421/.638 slash and improved his ISO from .148 to .276, while cutting his strikeout rate to an excellent 9%. More importantly, he’s a solid receiver behind the plate with an arm that has improved to average and one that can slow the opponent’s running game. (Seifert)
Zack Stewart, OF, Missouri State- The most well-known prospect of this group, Stewart’s profile is very much bat driven. It’s easily plus power, with nearly 60% of his hits being >95 mph. His max EV is 115.7 mph, with a 110.2 mph 90th percentile EV. There’s some swing and miss to his game, with a 30% whiff rate and a 43% mark on breaking balls, but his swing decisions are quality and he’s got the contact quality to compensate. The bat tracking data here is promising in terms of projecting his performance to wood. His average bat speed is at 76 mph with a top at 88, in addition to an average attack angle at 10 degrees. Defensively, he’s a corner outfielder, likely left field with the skillset to project as near average there. (Earl)
Marshall Toole, OF, Wofford - Toole is likely a Day Three name, but there’s some intrigue here for me. He may have a 70-grade run tool and swiped 43 bags this year. He played center field, but in my opinion he’s still a touch raw defensively and may find a higher level of success in one of the corner spots. His whiff numbers in 2024 were very promising, with his chase rates and swing rates painting a picture of strong swing decisions as well. The power is below average, with a 107.8 max EV and an 80.5 mph average. His launch angle profile has suppressed his power output, with his hard hits coming off at 8.3 degrees. The draw here is a run tool/hit tool package and the making of what could be a big league center fielder with maturation. (Earl)
Zane Zielinski, Senior, SS, UI-Chicago- When the retiring all-time great and future college baseball Hall-of-Famer Keith Guttin from Missouri State told me this spring that “the shortstop at Illinois-Chicago is a future big leaguer”, I listened. Still filling out his 6-foot-3, 180-pound long, lean, athletic frame, Zielinski is a classic late-bloomer. As a defender he’s an easy mover with very good hands, a plus arm and easy actions. His aggressive approach to the ball and quick feet (6.60- sixty) results in very good range. In the batter’s box his swing can get long at times, but it’s loose with some leverage and he uses the middle of the field. Zielinski is still tapping into his power with a current max EV of 107 mph and he increased his ISO from .058 in 2023 to .219 this spring, while cutting down his strikeout rate (27.3% to 17.8%). Zielinski is a no-doubt top 10 round pool saver, but he’s also a real prospect who profiles to have big league utility value with near Major League ready defensive tools. (Seifert)