Over the past five years, Division I college baseball has produced 14 outfielders who were drafted in the first round (top 30 picks). Eight of those 14 have come from the 2022 and 2023 drafts alone.

2023: Dylan Crews, LSU, 2nd overall. Wyatt Langford, Florida, 4th. Enrique Bradfield, Jr., Vanderbilt, 17th. Chase Davis, Arizona, 21st.

2022: Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech, 9th. Chase DeLauter, James Madison, 16th. Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt, 25th. Drew Gilbert, Tennessee, 28th.

2021: Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State, 5th. Sal Frelick, Boston College, 15th.

2020: Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas, 2nd. Garrett Mitchell, UCLA, 20th.

2019: JJ Bleday, Vanderbilt, 4th. Hunter Bishop, Arizona State, 10th.

Bleday has over two years of major league service, but has been slow to develop into the frontline everyday guy that was expected. Bishop has not reached the Major Leagues as he’s been unable to overcome swing/miss that was already a big concern heading into the draft. 2020 produced much better results with both Kjerstad and Mitchell producing in the Major Leagues, while the 2021 duo of Cowser and Frelick looks strong as well.

The 2024 college draft class has three likely first-rounders and one other who is likely to be chosen within the top 30 picks.

The locks are Braden Montgomery, James Tibbs and Carson Benge and if the draft was strictly based on athleticism and defense, Vance Honeycutt would go 1-1. He’s a gold glove superstar in the big field.

2024 Top Ten:

1. Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M- Some minor struggles in the second half of the season have dimmed his rise a bit, but there’s no doubt to the improvements he has made, especially with his right handed swing. Although he was injured sliding into home plate during the College Station Super Regional and will be out for several weeks, including all of the upcoming CWS, the five-tool outfielder has likely pushed his draft value into the top ten overall picks.

2. James Tibbs, Florida State- Throughout much of the season Tibbs had more home runs than strikeouts and he currently checks in with 28 round-trippers and 31 strikeouts after swatting three in game one of the super regionals. He also enters the 2024 CWS with a .374 batting average, .438 ISO and just a 10.3% strikeout rate. The left handed hitter is one of a very few who combines hit ability and power production. Tibbs will likely be chosen in the top half of the first round.

3. Carson Benge, Oklahoma State- It’s a tight race for No. 3 on this list, but the two-way talent Benge gets the nod. He’s a Day One prospect in the batter’s box and on the mound. The left handed hitter finished the season with a .335 batting average and 18 home runs after a rough start for me during Week Two of College Crosscheck where he was an easy out with hard stuff to the inner half of the plate. His swing will need further shortening and polish before he can more consistently get to his plus raw power more often. On the mound the right-hander runs his fastball into the mid-90s, but his 79-81 mph whammer curve ball is his out pitch. It boasts an absurd 63.6% Whiff rate, which is 100th percentile filth (the average D1 Whiff rate is 29.7%). His third pitch changeup is seldom used, but when he does, it too is a swing/miss (99th percentile Whiff rate) offering that he keeps down in the strike zone. While the best two-way college talent in this year’s draft is undoubtedly Jac Caglianone, Benge is not far behind.

4. Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina- Defensively, Honeycutt is as good as it gets. His “top plays list” in center field is almost infinite, but his 28% strikeout rate at the plate is really hard to ignore. A rate above 20% is a major red flag for an amateur prospect, especially one who will be considered for the first round. Regardless, the uber athletic draft talent will not make it past the top 30 picks, his defense in the middle of the field is just that good.

5. Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky- Once he returned to full health the Wildcats’ outfielder was nearly unstoppable, rising from a Day Three candidate to a likely late Day One pick. His bat speed is explosive and he’s a plus runner with base stealing instincts, but it was his superior performance during SEC play that jolted his trajectory upward as he finished third in batting average in SEC conference only games at .405, just behind first round prospects Christian Moore and Charlie Condon.

6. Dylan Dreiling, Tennessee- Blessed with thunder in his forearms and tremendous bat speed Dreiling has the power for a corner prospect and just enough other tools to profile as an everyday left fielder at the major league level. Although he has slumped a bit since midseason the arrow is still up on this sophomore draft-eligible who enters the 2024 CWS with 20 home runs and a current production line of .320/.445/.689.

7. John Spikerman, Oklahoma- The speedy Spikerman was off to a career best start in 2024 before breaking his hamate in mid-March. He returned to the Sooners’ lineup on a full-time basis in early May and finished with a .367/.429/.542 slash line. Most importantly, his strikeout rate was reduced to 13.2% from 18.7% last season. Some of that improvement was a result of hunting for contact earlier in the count, but the switch-hitter also recognized pitches much better from both sides of the plate. A four-tool talent, Spikerman has below average power, but throws at least average and with 70-grade run speed he projects to remain in center field at the professional level.

8. Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State- Jordan will likely be drafted before a couple of those above him on this list. His tools are just too great as he brings a loud tool set to the park. His lightning quick bat speed exceeds Bazzana, Wetherholt and Kurtz for the best in the college class. However, similar to Honeycutt, it’s very difficult getting past Jordan’s 29% strikeout rate. Although Jordan was able to produce 20 home runs and a .354/.459/.671  production line this season, that type of strikeout rate does not play at the professional level. Jordan is also a below average defender in the outfield with instincts that need continued polish. He will likely be selected during the second half of Day One.

9. Jakob Christian, San Diego- The 6-foot-5, 225 right handed slugger was once an unheralded high school prospect who did not have any Division I offers as a prep. After two years at Division 2 Point Loma Nazarene, Christian blossomed into a star thanks to a growth spurt and hard work in the weight room. Transferring to San Diego last fall, Christian overcame a sluggish start to the 2024 season as he recovered from an early injury. He finished with 26 home runs and a .364 batting average while his strikeout rate fell to exactly 20% by the end of the season after it was well over that rate for most of it.

10. Casey Cook, North Carolina- A season long riser, Cook caught my attention during Week 10 of the Scouting Trail. His overall tools’ package is average, but productive college bats rise on draft day and Cook’s will be no exception. Entering the 2024 CWS, Cook is batting .339 with 18 home runs.

High Honors:

Harrison Didawick (Virginia), Rodney Green, Jr. (Cal), Nick McLain (Arizona State), Austin Overn (Southern Cal), Casey Saucke (Virginia), Eli Serrano (NC State), Mike Sirota (Northeastern), Zack Stewart (Missouri State), Kavares Tears (Tennessee), Banks Tolley (App State)

Honorable Mention:

Ivan Brethowr (UC Santa Barbara), Pat Clohisy (Saint Louis), Khadim Diaw (Loyola Marymount), Joel Dragoo (Presbyterian), Brendan Jones (Kansas State), Jacob Jenkins-Cowart (East Carolina), Zach MacDonald (Miami, OH), Bryce Madron (Oklahoma), Lyle Miller-Green (Austin Peay), Nick Mitchell (Indiana), Mark Shallenberger (Evansville), Will Taylor (Clemson), Fenwick Trimble (James Madison).