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Revisiting our Preseason PIAA Class AAAA Super 16 Predictions

August 3, 2015

By Jacob Gill
Philadelphia Region Director of Scouting

With the main portion of the summer evaluation season over, it's time to turn the mirror on ourselves and see how our pre-season predictions for the top teams in the state worked out, beginning today with PIAA Class AAAA. Since we broke up the state tournament berth forecast by district, we'll do this analysis the same way.

District I (5 bids)

How we saw it: Spring-Ford, Hatboro-Horsham, Council Rock North, Pennridge, Penncrest
How it played out: Council Rock North, North Penn, Owen J Roberts, West Chester East, Pennsbury

CR North was the lone squad among our favorites to survive the gauntlet that is the District I tournament, although North Penn (which went on to win its second state title in three seasons), WC East, and Pennsbury were all among our pre-season top twelve in this 53-team behemoth district.

Three of the other four favorites fell to state tournament qualifiers in the early-round, single-elimination portion of the district bracket: Spring-Ford to Pennsbury in round two; Hatboro-Horsham to North Penn in round two; and Penncrest, in an agonizing 15-inning game, to WC East in round one. Pennridge fell 3-1 in round one to West Chester Rustin, which was eventually knocked off by WC East in the quarterfinals.

Sub-Regional II/IV (1 bid)

How we saw it: Hazleton Area
How it played out: Wyoming Valley West

A talented Hazleton squad had a strong season, with three of its six losses (5-4 in nine innings & 3-0 during the regular-season, plus 4-1 in the sub-region title game) coming by three runs or less at the hands of WVW, which was one of two other teams we viewed as a strong contender for the crown.

District III (3 bids)

How we saw it: Hempfield, Cedar Cliff, Governor Mifflin
How it played out: Hempfield, Chambersburg Area, Governor Mifflin

Top seeded in the bracket, Hempfield didn't make it easy on themselves, but managed to win four 1-run games on its way to the district title. Governor Mifflin rode its predictably strong pitching staff to a state berth. Chambersburg came from off the radar a bit following a sub-.500 campaign in 2014 and 12-8 record heading into 2015 district play. Cedar Cliff's season ended with a big "what-if" following an extra-inning loss to Hempfield in the district second round.

Sub-Regional VI/VIII/IX/X (1 bid)

How we saw it: Central Mountain
How it played out: State College Area

Listed among our Other Top Contenders for this group, the balance of power certainly seems to have shifted in State College's direction following its third straight state tournament berth. Central Mountain fell to the Little Lions in the District VI semifinals.

District VII (3 bids)

How we saw it: Shaler Area, Bethel Park, Penn-Trafford
How it played out: Pittsburgh Central Catholic, Norwin, Shaler Area

Shaler held up its end, although it took the fourth meeting of the year against PCC (one of our preseason top ten in the district) for the Titans to finally down the Vikings. Bethel Park fell one win short of a state berth, dropping the WPIAL semifinal game to Norwin and 3rd place game to Shaler, a win in either of which would have assured it a spot. After graduating more than half its roster, Norwin started the season in prove-it mode, but it certainly did that while knocking off two Division I-bound southpaws during its post-season run. Penn-Trafford was our biggest whiff in 4A, as it failed to qualify for the WPIAL playoffs.

District XI (1 bid)

How we saw it: Parkland
How it played out: Parkland

About the only thing that could have derailed the Trojans' express train to the state tournament was running into eventual MLB First-Year Player Draft first-round selection Mike Nikorak and his mid-90s fastball for Stroudsburg, which fell in the district semifinals, one step short of facing off with the champs. It should be noted, however, that Parkland beat Stroudsburg with Nikorak on the hill in 2014 and 2015, so there is certainly ample reason to believe the Trojans could have slain that beast again.

District XII (2 bids)

How we saw it: La Salle, Central
How it played out: St. Joseph's Prep, Olney Charter

Despite a 14-4 loss to La Salle during the regular-season, St. Joseph's Prep finished one game ahead of the then defending state champ in the Philadelphia Catholic League standings. When both teams were eliminated in the semifinals of the PCL playoffs, the Hawks earned the state bid via PCL rules. The Philadelphia Public League doles out its state bid based solely on playoff results: Olney Charter reached the PPL championship game and was the last 4A team standing; Central fell in the quarterfinals.

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