Revisiting our Preseason PIAA Class AA Super 16 Predictions
August 5, 2015
By Jacob Gill
Philadelphia Region Director of Scouting
With the main portion of the summer evaluation season over, it's time to turn the mirror on ourselves and see how our preseason predictions for the top teams in the state worked out, continuing today with PIAA Class AA. Since we broke up the state tournament berth forecast by district, we'll do the analysis that way as well.
District I (1 bid)
How we saw it: Devon Prep
How it played out: Devon Prep
The 2014 Class A state champs barely missed a beat with the step up a level this season, holding on in the district title game for a 4-3 win over defending district champ Springfield Township.
District II (1 bid)
How we saw it: Lakeland
How it played out: Montrose
Back-to-back district champ Lakeland couldn't find the magic this spring, falling in the district quarterfinal to Nanticoke. Montrose finished 2014 with just an 8-6 record, but returned the bulk of a pitching staff that ended up propelling the Meteors to the state tournament.
District III (2 bids)
How we saw it: Delone Catholic, Lancaster Catholic
How it played out: Camp Hill, Upper Dauphin Area
Despite entering their district quarterfinal match-ups as the better seed, neither Delone Catholic nor Lancaster Catholic were able to advance. Camp Hill was our preseason bridesmaid, but caught the bouquet when it mattered. UDA knocked off top-seed LC in the quarterfinals on its way to an unexpected state bid after not making it past the quarters in the four previous seasons.
District IV (2 bids)
How we saw it: Loyalsock Township, Towanda Area
How it played out: Loyalsock Township, Troy Area
Not going to pat ourselves on the back too much for predicting that two-time defending state champ Loyalsock would make another run, given that virtually the entire pitching staff and much of the offense returned from the previous two seasons. With lots of question marks in the rest of the PHAC, this seemed like a year an NTL team could make a run, we just chose the wrong one, although Troy was among our preseason top seven in the district.
Sub-Regional V/VI (2 bids)
How we saw it: Central, Bellwood-Antis
How it played out: Richland, Bellwood-Antis
Richland certainly earned their state berth, knocking off four of our preseason top eight teams in the district playoffs, including both Central (in the quarterfinals) and B-A (in the championship). Despite that title game hiccup, B-A lived up to expectations with a strong season from start to finish.
District VII (3 bids)
How we saw it: Seton-La Salle Catholic, Neshannock, Riverside
How it played out: Neshannock, Quaker Valley, Steel Valley
Neshannock justified our confidence, and then some, on its way to capturing the state title. One of our district top six in the preseason, Quaker Valley knocked off both Seton-La Salle and Riverside, as well as fellow top-sixer Keystone Oaks, on its way to a state berth. Our early-season hesitance on Steel Valley was whether or not the pitching staff had a Robin to Brandon Donovan's Batman, but the WPIAL bracket unfolded so that the Ironmen could ride their ace in three of the four games (all victories in must-win scenarios).
Sub-Regional VIII/IX (1 bid)
How we saw it: Cranberry Area
How it played out: Cranberry Area
Our preseason top three teams in this sub-region were just that, as the Berries defeated Karns City and Moniteau in the playoffs on their way to the state tournament, which they reached as a member of Class A the previous season.
District X (1 bid)
How we saw it: Franklin Area
How it played out: Mercyhurst Prep
Franklin could not quite repeat the magic of 2014's state semifinal run, bowing out in the district quarterfinals. Mercyhurst Prep, one of our preseason top six in the district, showed no mercy on its opponents through the regular-season or district playoffs.
District XI (1 bid)
How we saw it: Salisbury Township
How it played out: Schuylkill Haven Area
It took twelve innings, but Schuylkill Haven, one of our preseason top four in the district, finally put away Salisbury Township in the district semifinals, becoming yet another team to carry momentum from a 2014 Class A district crown to success in AA this spring.
District XII (2 bids)
How we saw it: Neumann-Goretti, Prep Charter
How it played out: Neumann-Goretti, MaST Community Charter
There was perhaps no bigger shoe-in to return to the state tournament among this cohort than Neumann-Goretti. MaST, one of our pre-season top four to earn the district's second state berth, annihilated Prep Charter in the Philadelphia Public League third round.