How good are this year’s college third base prospects?

In the past 10 years, Division I college baseball has produced nine third baseman who were drafted in the first round (top 30 picks).

2023: Brock Wilken, Wake Forest, 18th overall
2022: Jacob Berry, LSU, 6th
2021: None
2020: None
2019: Josh Jung, Texas Tech, 8th. Kody Hoese, Tulane, 25th
2018: Jonathan India, Florida, 5th
2017: Jake Burger, Missouri State, 11th
2016: Will Craig, Wake Forest, 22nd. Nick Senzel, Tennessee, 2nd
2015: None
2014: Matt Chapman, Cal State Fullerton, 25th

India played a majority of his collegiate games at third base, and also saw some action at shortstop. Senzel began his college career at second base, then moved to third base as a junior, but did spend a dozen games at shortstop his draft season.

By a landslide, Chapman is the most productive player in the Major Leagues. His 33.9 career WAR is far and away the best. Next-best is India with a 5.5 career WAR and Jung third at 3.0.

Wilken, Berry and Hoese have not yet reached the Major Leagues. Craig retired from baseball after the 2021 season.

The 2024 college draft class has one no-doubt first-rounder and three others who are likely to be chosen within the top 30 picks.

The sure bet is Charlie Condon (Georgia), however the next three are just a matter of team/scout preference. Some believe Cam Smith (Florida State) is just an adjustment or two away at the plate from really getting to his immense power potential. Others think he’s bound for right field in pro ball and has too many holes in his swing. In that same area of the draft (last half of the first round) Tommy White (LSU) and Billy Amick (Tennessee) will also be highly considered. White gets the nod from scouts as the one who has the most trustworthy hit tool, but his chances of remaining at third base over the long term are less than the others. Although still in need of improvement, Amick gets the nod as the one who has the best chance of remaining at third base defensively.

2024 Top Ten:

1. Charlie Condon, Georgia- The leader of this group for many reasons, including a maximum exit velocity this season of 118 mph, Condon has been college baseball’s top performer all season-long. A 6-foot-6, 210-pound converted outfielder, he is being compared to Kris Bryant, the most successful of all tall (6-foot-5 plus) college third basemen in recent memory. Critics thought Bryant would end up in the outfield in pro ball, and there are those who say the same with Condon, but after just recently converting to the hot corner, progress has already been made. I personally bet against Alec Bohm remaining at third base over the long term of his pro career, but to date he has been a mainstay there for the Phillies. It’s been at a slightly below average clip, but as the starting third baseman on one of the best teams in MLB there’s not much else to discuss. Condon is listed as an inch taller, and is more athletic than Bohm. Condon has a good chance to remain at the hot corner over the long-term, while also providing versatility in the corner outfield and first base. Another recent question mark surrounding Condon is his home/away splits. They are drastically different – .523 AVG / 1.189 SLG / 24 HR / .506 BABIP in 34 games at home vs. .333 AVG / .864 SLG / 10 HR / .293 BABIP in 17 games on the road. Home runs are just a counting statistic, but the drastic difference of BABIP raises an eyebrow, even with the home run differential, as is his strikeout rate of 13% at home and 18.1% on the road. Regardless, Condon has had a historic season with a .443 batting average and 35 home runs. He’s also athletic and there’s projection remaining to his frame. He will hear his name called within the top three overall picks this July.

2. Billy Amick, Tennessee- A midseason riser, Amick’s slump the second half of the season has dampened an otherwise strong year. He has improved defensively from a year ago and played his way into first round conversations. Although he may be ranked as the fourth college third baseman by some and third by others, he’s second for me. Offensively, he can be compared to Trevor Story; one who can hit for both power and average. For the season he currently has a .346 ISO to go along with a 18.5% K rate and a 9.1% BB rate. He has also mastered the art of hitting the ball in the air (48.2% fly ball rate), keeping it off the ground which allows his plus bat speed and 60-grade raw power (114 max EV) to be put into full use. Overall, Amick combines performance on both sides of the ball with tools, makeup and analytic-friendly data.

3. Tommy White, LSU- Tanks leads the Tigers in batting average at .337 and is second to Jared Jones with 24 home runs. His top EV this season of 113 mph equates to plus raw power on the pro scale. White has both bat strength and bat speed, but what separates him from most other power hitters is his ability to control the zone and use all fields. His spray chart does indicate a weakness of being able to pull velocity which raises some concern for the next level. At the pro level White projects to become at least average in both his power production and hit ability. Defensively, his hands are soft enough and he shows just enough arm strength to handle third base. However, with fair actions and limited range to fielding just what’s in his box, there’s a greater than 50/50 chance that the pro game at the hot corner may get too fast as his permanent defensive home. His feet are just playable and his throwing accuracy is below average. A bat-first prospect, White slots into the end of the first round at this point on my personal draft board.

4. Cam Smith, Florida State- Big, strong and athletic at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, Smith has shown improvement in many areas this spring after his adjustments began in the Cape Cod League last summer. Most notable is his strikeout rate which has plummeted from 28.7% as a true freshman last spring to 16% this year as a draft-eligible sophomore. His batting average has hovered around .400 all season and currently sits at .397 to go along with 14 home runs and 35 XBHs in 275 plate appearances. His top exit velocity this season is 116 which is plus-plus on the pro scale. There is concern throughout the industry regarding the lack of fluidity at the plate and the holes in his swing. Some view them as a red flag, others see it as an opportunity to develop and tap further into his big raw power. Defensively, he shows fair hands and less than average range at the third base. There’s extra length to his field/throw transfer and he will need many reps for polish in order to stay at the hot corner on an everyday basis in pro ball. Many evaluators, including myself, see his future home in right field where his plus arm strength and big raw power profile.

5. Gage Miller, Alabama- A bit of an unknown to national cross checkers and scouting directors to start this season, Miller has likely played his way into the end of Day One with a loud .381/.475/.714 slash with 18 home runs as the leadoff man for the Crimson Tide. Although he lacks the raw power desired (108 max EV this season) he consistently gets the barrel on the ball and rarely strikes out – 9.3% K rate. Miller is also the quintessential example of the sum is greater than the parts. With solid, but not spectacular tools across the board the 5-foot-11 infielder is a very good college baseball player and maximizes what he does have. He will most likely not be selected in the first round like Mississippi State’s Justin Foscue was in 2020, but he is similar to Foscue in many ways.

6. Sean Keys, Bucknell- The 6-foot-2, 220 pound left-handed hitter continued his emergence this spring after a brief, but excellent summer in the Cape Cod League (.385/.422/.769, four home runs in 45 plate appearances). With a quiet, balanced approach in the box he controls the zone. He walks (35) more than he strikes out (26) and has just a 12% K rate this spring. He’s also a hard contact machine with a max EV of 111 mph. Keys slugged 13 home runs this season, along with a .403 batting average. Defensively, he has limited range, but sure hands and enough arm strength to hold down the position over the long term.

7. Sam Antonacci, Coastal Carolina- The Chants top prospect this season, Antonacci projects to the fourth-to-fifth rounds. He combines solid tools with grit and the ability to simply play the game. His max EV of 106 mph this spring is below average and nowhere near the pro third base standard, but he will most likely play shortstop at the next level. In junior college last spring he was a middle-of-the-order slugger who showed more power and bat speed, but has adjusted well to his role as the leadoff hitter for Coastal. Currently batting .368 with a .526 OBP, it’s just another example of the adjustments he’s able to make. The left handed hitter also runs average, throws above average and will likely move back to his natural position of shortstop where his hands and body control are well-suited.

8. Blake Wright, Clemson- Another college third baseman who will likely be moved to a new position in pro ball, Wright is the lone senior in this top ten. He struggled mightily during his junior draft season in 2023 (.250/.326/.401), but has righted the ship in 2024 with a .341 average and 21 home runs. He shows at least a grade better bat speed this season than last spring and produced a 109 max EV. At the plate he sets up with high hands that he drops into slot during his load. There is excess head movement accompanying his swing, but he is long through the zone with very good extension through contact. Defensively, Wright has sure hands and average arm strength with good accuracy across the diamond. It’s just enough to play on the left side of the infield, but might be best suited for second base at the pro level. Wright has positioned himself for likely selection in the top five-to-seven rounds as a senior prospect.

9. Robert Hipwell, Santa Clara- Suspended to start the 2024 season, Hipwell never fully got back on track, ending with a final slash of .272/.442/.515 with three home runs and five doubles in 96 plate appearances. The 6-foot-3, 220 pound left handed hitter has some juice and is able to produce hard contact to all fields. His max EV this spring was 111 and 109 last season. He walks (18) nearly as much as he strikes out (21), but it does come with a high strikeout rate; 24.4% this season, 21.2% in 2023. After a limited spring season, his current draft value is somewhat of a wild card, but in all likelihood he will be selected in the middle of Day Two. Hipwell reports to the MLB Draft League after the draft combine June 18-23 at Chase Field and will look to post numbers in advance of the July 14-16 draft.

10. Carson DeMartini, Virginia Tech- A top two-to-three round prospect entering the spring, the left handed hitting third baseman struggled to produce consistent, hard contact at the plate. His 27.7% strikeout rate was alarming, but when he did find the barrel, he did damage. His .403 ISO ranks 30th in college baseball this spring and his 21 home runs rank tied for third in this top ten. His max EV this spring was 113 mph which grades a plus on the pro scale. Defensively, his hands, glove, and footwork are average, but his arm action is not. After labrum surgery last summer, his arm strength is below average. He’s athletic enough to remain at the hot corner at the next level, but a full recovery and range of motion to his arm action is a must.

Honorable Mention:

Dixon Black (Wofford), Cael Chatham (High Point), Reed Chumley (West Virginia), Zander Darby (UC Santa Barbara), Brandon Eike (VCU), Matt Halbach (UC San Diego), Wyatt Henseler (Penn), Alec Makarewicz (NC State), Ben Miller (Duke), Jack Penney (Notre Dame), Austin St. Laurent (App State).