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Revisiting our 2014 Preseason Team Rankings: PIAA Class AAA

December 11, 2014

By Jacob Gill
Philadelphia Region Director of Scouting

This week we are revisiting our preseason team rankings to see what we got right and where we were off base in 2014. So far this week we have examined the PAISAA, PIAA Class A, and PIAA Class AA. Today we will move onto bigger schools in PIAA Class AAA.

2014 Pre-season PIAA Class AAA Super 16

1. West York Area
2. Holy Ghost Prep
3. Abington Heights
4. Greencastle-Antrim
5. Indiana Area
6. Valley View
7. Upper Moreland
8. Blackhawk
9. Lampeter-Strasburg
10. West Perry
11. West Allegheny
12. Jersey Shore
13. Punxsutawney
14. Susquehannock
15. Tamaqua Area
16. Cathedral Prep

What We Got Right

District II champion Abington Heights (15-6), District III runner-up West Perry (18-7) and District VII champion West Allegheny (18-5) were among eight pre-season ranked teams that lived up to their billing and reached the state tournament. District IX champion Punxsutawney (15-6), District VII runner-up Blackhawk (15-4), and District IV champion Jersey Shore (21-3) all reached the state quarterfinals, while District XI champion Tamaqua Area (20-7) and District X champion Cathedral Prep (21-4) were semifinalists.

Two pre-season ranked teams had a quality regular-season, but came up one win short (against a high-level opponent) of a state berth. Holy Ghost Prep (17-4), which suffered three of its losses against AAAA schools and recorded a non-conference win over AAAA state champion La Salle, fell to the eventual state champion in the District I semifinals. Valley View (13-4) beat Abington Heights twice during the regular-season before succumbing to the Comets in the District II championship game.

Where We Were Off Base

Four quality teams we had ranked during the pre-season, which just so happened to earn the top four seeds in the District III tournament, all got knocked out in the first round. Two-time defending state champion West York Area (17-4) looked primed to make another strong run after winning York-Adams Division II by six games. Drawing the 16-seed with a .500 record was not the opening round gimme it could have been, as College of Charleston-bound right-handed pitcher Nathan Ocker was able to help Middletown Area pull off the major upset. Mid-Penn Colonial regular-season champ Greencastle-Antrim (18-3) was riding a 16-game winning streak before a stunning 1-run loss. Lancaster-Lebanon Division 3 champ Lampeter-Strasburg (17-5) and York-Adams Division III champ Susquehannock (16-6), which averaged 6.4 and 8.2 runs per game, respectively, were both shockingly shut out in round one of district play. [Side note: the only seeded favorite to win in the first round of the District III class AAA tournament was the 8-seed over the 9-seed]

One-quarter of the state tournament field came from our preseason Others to Watch list, including: District XII champion Archbishop Wood (17-6); District V champion Somerset Area (17-2); and District VII third place West Mifflin Area (15-6). District I runner-up Harriton (18-10) proved themselves to be a battle-tested group after playing a predominantly AAAA schedule in the Central League (including a win over AAAA state runner-up Conestoga), on the way to a state finals appearance at this level.

Where We Swung and Missed

Despite enviable depth on the mound, Indiana Area (13-8) gave up over eight runs per game in its losses. Albeit against mostly AAAA competition, outside of a six-game stretch in the middle of the year, Upper Moreland (13-7) had trouble stringing wins together and averaged only two runs per game in its losses.

District III champion Northern York (19-6), which beat West Perry three times during the season, and District III third place Northeastern (16-10) both came from off our radar at the beginning of the season to earn berths in the state tournament.

Last, but certainly not least, there's state champion Pope John Paul II (23-6), which was nowhere near the radar coming off a 2013 season in which it finished 5-14. First-year coach John Duffy energized a group that not only rolled through the AAA tournament, but also went toe-to-toe throughout the season (4-4 record) in the Pioneer Athletic Conference against three teams (Boyertown Area, Methacton, Spring-Ford) that all reached the AAAA state tournament.

Final Thoughts

We are going to forgive ourselves somewhat for not expecting an 18-win turnaround from Pope John Paul II. While eight of our preseason ranked teams reached the state tournament, the bottom half of the rankings saved us, as the top half got blown to smithereens. Single-elimination tournaments can be cruel, and District III's just buried us (although we'd like partial credit for not only ranking the eventual top four seeds, but also having them ranked in the order they were seeded).

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