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By Jacob Gill
Pennsylvania Assistant Director of Scouting

and PBR staff

With rain washing out a good chunk of action across the state this past week, compressing schedules the rest of the way, it's time to roll out the second mid-season update to our Super 16s. These team "rankings" aren't a standard Top 25, but rather an effort to predict what everyone is striving for: state tournament berths. Instead of going down a rabbit hole by attempting to order teams from various parts of the state who play against vastly different levels of competition (note: strength of schedule is taken into account), we are going to try to compare apples to apples a bit more. Each update, we will present the schools we think are in the best position to earn state tournament berths out of their respective districts. Below are our predictions, in bracket order, for how we see the PIAA class AAAA state tournament shaping up. A Watch List for each district is also included, with the teams on it absolutely in the mix to make the March to Medlar.

Notes:
1. X-Y under "Berth" = [District]-[Bid]. For example, 7-2 is the runner-up from District VII.
2. If multiple districts are listed in one box, those districts will form a sub-regional to determine that bid.

2016 PIAA Class AAAA Super 16

Berth	School	Record	Notes
1-1	Council Rock North	14-1	The Indians continue to roll along with their only loss coming in a 12-inning, instant classic against 2015 state tourney participant Pennsbury.  Have given up three runs or less eleven times.
3-3	Warwick	14-3	It's a Lancaster-Lebanon League section 1 sweep for District III's bids this time around. The three schools (see below for other two) are in an A beat B, B beat C, C beat A scenario. The Warriors also beat top contender Ephrata Area in non-conference action. Have given up more than two runs just three times all spring.
11-1	Freedom	16-1	The upstart Patriots continue to rack up wins. Only loss came by 1-0 score to reigning champ Parkland. Watch out for the Trojans, by the way, who, after a rough start, haven't lost a league game in over a month.
1-3	Central Bucks South	8-3	Leading the SOL Continental outright is no easy feat and, while the Titans haven't been on the field much recently, the have only given up more than two runs in a game twice all season. Face the 2nd & 3rd place teams the next two days.
2-1/ 4-1	Wyoming Valley West	8-1	Last year's state runner-up has continued its winning ways. Only loss was in a 1-0 game and the Spartnas have convincing early-season wins over other contenders for this spot.
3-2	Penn Manor	15-2	Both losses came by 2-1 scores to other top contenders. Swept home-and-home series vs Warwick and beat strong Dallastown Area team in non-conference play. Have given up more than two runs just four times this year.
12-1	Roman Catholic	10-3	Only in-state loss is to other 4A contender Father Judge, but the Cahillites get the nod here, as their pitching depth is better-suited to carry them through the Philly Catholic playoffs. Haven't given up more than four runs in a game all season, and only three times have give up more than two.
1-4	Downingtown West	13-2	Youth be damned. Despite having only four seniors on the roster and with underclassmen playing key roles, the Whippets have won ten straight and given up more than three runs only twice this season. Both losses came by a single run.
3-1	Hempfield	14-2	In addition to beating Penn Manor, the Black Knights also have quality wins over Ephrata Area, 2A favorite Lancaster Catholic, and 2015 state tourney entrant Governor Mifflin. Have given up more than three runs just twice all year. Get rematch vs Warwick today.
1-5	Conestoga	10-3	Perennial district contenders still lead the Central League, where their two league losses have come by one run each. Offense has scored at least six runs on nine occasions and only been held below four twice.
1-2	Boyertown Area	13-3	The Bears have gone 7-1 since the last update, continue to lead the PAC-10, and have given up more than three runs just four times all season, and allowed less than two eleven times.
12-2	Olney Charter	9-1	2015 state tournament participant again sits atop the Philly Public Division A standings. Can complete season sweep of other PPL 4A contenders with win over Frankford this week.
7-1	Plum	17-0	While their section may not be as strong others, the preseason WPIAL favorite has answered every challenge, including out-of-section wins against playoff-bound Shaler Area, Norwin, Fox Chapel Area, and North Allegheny.
7-3	Shaler Area	13-5	Flip a coin for the rest of the WPIAL. Seriously, it would not surprise us if any from a dozen teams emerged. The section 3 champs held their own in out-of-section play, posting wins over playoff-bound Hempfield Area, Canon-Mac, and North Allegheny.
6-1/ 8-1/ 9-1/ 10-1	Central Mountain	13-1	Hasn't played the strength of schedule that other contenders for this bid have, but knocked off Mifflin County in a non-league game and handed sub-region II/IV contender Williamsport Area one of its two losses on the year. Only allowed more than three runs twice.
7-2	Pine-Richland	14-4	Again, flip a coin. The Rams captured rugged WPIAL section 1 outright and won out-of-section games aginst playoff-bound Mt. Lebo, Shaler Area, Greater Latrobe, and Bethel Park.

Watch List
District I: Perkiomen Valley, Owen J. Roberts, Spring-Ford, Pennridge, Souderton Area, Coatesville Area
Sub-Region II/IV: Williamsport Area, Wallenpaupack Area
District III: Ephrata Area, Cumberland Valley, Dallastown Area, Cedar Cliff, Red Land, Central Dauphin, Mechanicsburg Area
Sub-Region VI/VIII/IX/X: Mifflin County, State College Area, DuBois Area
District VII: Hempfield Area, North Allegheny, North Hills, Fox Chapel Area, Greater Latrobe, Bethel Park, Canon-McMillan, Peters Township
District XI: Easton Area, Parkland, Liberty
District XII: Father Judge, Northeast, Central, Frankford

Previous Super 16 News

5/9 - PIAA Class AAA Super 16 (early May update)
5/9 - PIAA Class AA Super 16 (early May update)
5/9 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (early May update)
5/9 - PAISAA Fab Four (early May update)
4/18 - PIAA Class AAAA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/18 - PIAA Class AAA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class AA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PAISAA Fab Four (mid-April update)
3/24 - PIAA Class AAAA Preseason Super 16
3/23 - PIAA Class AAA Preseason Super 16
3/22 - PIAA Class AA Preseason Super 16
3/21 - PIAA Class A Preseason Super 16
3/20 - PAISAA Preseason Fab Four