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By Jacob Gill
Pennsylvania Assistant Director of Scouting

and PBR staff

With rain washing out a good chunk of action across the state this past week, compressing schedules the rest of the way, it's time to roll out the second mid-season update to our Super 16s. These team "rankings" aren't a standard Top 25, but rather an effort to predict what everyone is striving for: state tournament berths. Instead of going down a rabbit hole by attempting to order teams from various parts of the state who play against vastly different levels of competition (note: strength of schedule is taken into account), we are going to try to compare apples to apples a bit more. Each update, we will present the schools we think are in the best position to earn state tournament berths out of their respective districts. Below are our predictions, in bracket order, for how we see the PIAA class AAA state tournament shaping up. A Watch List for each district is also included, with the teams on it absolutely in the mix to make the March to Medlar.

Notes:
1. X-Y under "Berth" = [District]-[Bid]. For example, 7-2 is the runner-up from District VII.
2. If multiple districts are listed in one box, those districts will form a sub-regional to determine that bid.

2016 PIAA Class AAA Super 16

Berth	School	Record	Notes
1-1	Upper Moreland	11-2	Holy Ghost Prep (12-3) didn't necessarily do anything to lose this spot, but UM has been impressive against a much higher strength of schedule. Bears pitchers have allowed three runs or less in ten games, with only losses coming 3-0 and 3-2 to 4A schools.
3-4	West Perry	13-3	Have won nine of last ten games, which includes a season sweep over a strong Northern York club. Unbeaten when allowing three runs or less.
2-1	Valley View	9-1	The Cougars are rolling, having won eight straight and giving up only two runs over their past five games, including back-to-back shutouts of three-time defending district champ Abington Heights.
4-1	Shikellamy	9-4	A recent three-game losing streak notwithstanding, the Braves have the best record against the other top contenders in this wide open district, none of which have really stepped up in recent weeks.
11-1	Tamaqua Area	12-4	Blue Raiders continue to play solid baseball behind a pitching staff that has allowed three runs or less eleven times and has recorded more strikeouts than hits allowed on the season.
3-2	Greencastle-Antrim	12-1	Blue Devils have allowed two runs or less nine times. Only loss came against 4A Muhlenberg.
12-1	Archbishop Wood	12-2	Preseason favorite again sits atop the Philadelphia Catholic League. Good tests coming this week against the top two 4A schools in the PCL.
3-3	Northeastern	11-4	Bobcats have won nine of last ten. Allowed three runs or less eleven times. Hitting .331 as a team with nine players at .300 or better.
3-1	Twin Valley	15-2	Raiders are allowing less than two runs per game (24 runs allowed) and the pitching staff has a WHIP under 1. Losses are by scores of 2-0 and 2-1.
12-2	Esperanza	9-3	On a nine-game winning streak. Big match-up vs recent Philly Public League 3A top dog Franklin Towne Charter on tap soon.
8-1/ 9-1	Punxsutawney Area	12-4	Only in-state loss came vs 4A Williamsport Area. Have gone 5-0 against other District IX schools and have outscored them by 27 total runs.
7-2	Laurel Highlands	16-1	Section 4 champ has gone unbeaten against in-state opponents so far. Pitching staff has thrown seven shutouts and only given up more than two runs in a game twice all season.
7-1	Montour	12-3	Section 3 champ continues to play well, having won eight of their last nine to close out section play.
5-1/ 6-1	Hollidaysburg Area	7-7	Overall record doesn't inspire a ton of confidnece, but have beaten all three of the other teams in this five-team sub-region that they have played so far.
10-1	Cathedral Prep	12-3	Have outscored six in-state opponents 62-3.
7-3	Blackhawk	13-4	Section 1 champ has won 11 of last 12 games and allowed three runs or less in nine of those contests. Fun non-conference tune-up for the WPIAL playoffs against Section 5 champ Mars today.

Watch List
District I: Bishop Shanahan, Holy Ghost Prep, Upper Perkiomen
District II: Abington Heights, Wyoming Area, North Pocono, Crestwood
District III: Northern York, Spring Grove Area, Berks Catholic, Hamburg Area, Manheim Central, East Pennsboro, Gettysburg Area, Eastern York
District IV: Jersey Shore Area, Mifflinburg Area, Montoursville Area
Sub-Region V/VI: Huntingdon Area, Bellefonte Area, Somerset Area
District VII: Mars, Knoch, West Allegheny, Belle Vernon Area, Hopewell, Yough, Indiana Area, Chartiers Valley
Sub-Region VIII/IX:
District X: Slippery Rock Area
District XI: Northwestern Lehigh, Allentown Central Catholic
District XII: Cardinal O'Hara, Bonner-Prendergast, Franklin Towne Charter

Previous PA Super 16 News

5/9 - PIAA Class AA Super 16 (early May update)
5/9 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (early May update)
5/9 - PAISAA Fab Four (early May update)
4/18 - PIAA Class AAAA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/18 - PIAA Class AAA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class AA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PAISAA Fab Four (mid-April update)
3/24 - PIAA Class AAAA Preseason Super 16
3/23 - PIAA Class AAA Preseason Super 16
3/22 - PIAA Class AA Preseason Super 16
3/21 - PIAA Class A Preseason Super 16
3/20 - PAISAA Preseason Fab Four