2016 PIAA Class AA Super 16 (early May update)
May 9, 2016
By Jacob Gill
Pennsylvania Assistant Director of Scouting
and PBR staff
With rain washing out a good chunk of action across the state this past week, compressing schedules the rest of the way, it's time to roll out the second mid-season update to our Super 16s. These team "rankings" aren't a standard Top 25, but rather an effort to predict what everyone is striving for: state tournament berths. Instead of going down a rabbit hole by attempting to order teams from various parts of the state who play against vastly different levels of competition (note: strength of schedule is taken into account), we are going to try to compare apples to apples a bit more. Each update, we will present the schools we think are in the best position to earn state tournament berths out of their respective districts. Below are our predictions, in bracket order, for how we see the PIAA class AA state tournament shaping up. A Watch List for each district is also included, with the teams on it absolutely in the mix to make the March to Medlar.
Notes:
1. X-Y under "Berth" = [District]-[Bid]. For example, 7-2 is the runner-up from District VII.
2. If multiple districts are listed in one box, those districts will form a sub-regional to determine that bid.
| Berth | School | Record | Notes |
| 12-1 | Neumann-Goretti | 7-6 | Have won four of last six, with both losses coming vs the current top 4A schools in the Philly Catholic League by a total of three runs. All games played so far vs 3A/4A and strong independent schools. |
| 3-2 | Camp Hill | 10-5 |
On a four-game winning streak, the Lions continue to hold their own against a predominantly big school schedule. Three of five losses are by one run; all losses are to 3A schools. |
| 2-1 | Lakeland | 11-2 |
On a nine-game winning streak with only losses on season against 3A schools. Tragically picked up additional motivation last month when a former teammate was killed in a vehicular accident. |
| 4-1 | Loyalsock Township | 14-1 |
On a twelve-game winning streak. Only loss was 3-1 against a 4A school that is 11-2 on the year. Huge game against other top contender Hughesville coming Tuesday. |
| 1-1 | Springfield Township | 2-8 |
Record obviously not great, but game scores indicate they have been competitive vs a predominantly 4A schedule. Three-horse race with the two evenly-matched teams on the Watch List. Caveat here is they need to actually win a few games to boost power rankings points to make the district playoffs. |
| 12-2 | MaST Community Charter | 5-6 |
The Panthers have remained competitive against a schedule significantly stronger than what they will face to earn this bid. |
| 3-1 | Lancaster Catholic | 9-4 |
Preseason favorite is only 3-3 since last update, but all losses during that span (and on the year) are vs 3A/4A schools. Have beaten every small school they've faced by double digits. |
| 11-1 | North Schuylkill | 14-2 |
As expected, the preseason favorite is dominating with pitching, having given up three runs or less in eight of twelve games vs in-state opponents. Offense has scored at least six runs in nine of those games. |
| 5-1/ 6-1 |
Mount Union Area | 14-2 |
Trojans have thrown eight shutouts and given up more than three runs only twice. Both losses are by one run. |
| 7-3 | Keystone Oaks |
11-4 |
Really not a whole lot separating a bunch of the contenders here, so the Golden Eagles hold this spot for now. KO split its season series with section rivals Steel Valley and Seton-La Salle. |
| 10-1 | Titusville | 6-7 |
Four of the Rockets losses are to 3A teams and they have beaten the previous holder of this bid twice. The two bids in this district appear to be wide open. |
| 7-2 | Neshannock | 14-2 |
Defending state champs avenged both of their early season losses (vs section rival Riverside and 3A New Castle Area) in the past week and a half, but remain locked in here due to slightly less consistent overall production than Riverside against largely the same schedule. |
| 7-1 | Riverside | 14-2 |
The Panthers have scored double digit runs nine times and only given up more than two runs thrice (three runs twice, four runs once). |
| 6-2 | Bald Eagle Area |
11-5 |
This district will come down to who is playing well at tournament time, and no one is playing better than BEA, which has won eight in a row, including avenging early-season losses vs contenders Philipsburg-Osceola, Central, and 3A Huntingdon Area. |
| 8-1/ 9-1 |
Moniteau | 10-2 |
Virtual dead heat here, as the Warriors are in an A beat B, B beat C, C beat A scenario with the teams on the Watch List. |
| 10-2 | Franklin Area |
11-3 |
Second place in their own region, but have beaten the teams atop the standings in the other two 2A regions in this district. |
Watch List
District I: Devon Prep, New Hope-Solebury
District II: Holy Redeemer, Northwest Area, Meyers, Hanover Area
District III: Brandywine Heights, Oley Valley, Annville-Cleona, Upper Dauphin Area
District IV: Hughesville
Sub-Region V/VI: Philipsburg-Osceola, Central, Forest Hills, Richland, Bishop McCort Catholic
District VII: Steel Valley, Seton-La Salle, Quaker Valley, Brownsville Area, Avonworth
Sub-Region VIII/IX: Karns City, Cranberry Area
District X: Northwestern, Fairview, Hickory, Reynolds
District XI: Notre Dame Green Pond, Schuylkill Haven Area
District XII: Science Leadership Academy, Prep Charter
Previous PA Super 16 News
5/9 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (early May update)
5/9 - PAISAA Fab Four (early May update)
4/18 - PIAA Class AAAA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/18 - PIAA Class AAA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class AA Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PIAA Class A Super 16 (mid-April update)
4/17 - PAISAA Fab Four (mid-April update)
3/24 - PIAA Class AAAA Preseason Super 16
3/23 - PIAA Class AAA Preseason Super 16
3/22 - PIAA Class AA Preseason Super 16
3/21 - PIAA Class A Preseason Super 16
3/20 - PAISAA Preseason Fab Four
